He also speculates that the SCOTUS will release their decision on the last available Monday, which is 23 Jun. I have seen other lawyers propose this as well, and somehow my gut tells me that this is right. Of course my gut tells me I should have passed on those last couple slices of pizza, so I may be getting corrupted signals, not sure.
A small excerpt:
9. Hints About Incorporation? If D.C.’s handgun ban is held unconstitutional in Heller (as it should be), the city of Chicago’s essentially identical ban on handguns will offer a prime target for a test case designed to present the issue of Second Amendment incorporation. A lower court that considers the issue in light of the Supreme Court’s post-1960 “selective incorporation� precedents will have a very difficult time avoiding the incorporation of the Second Amendment, at least in some form, against state and local governments. The only way lower courts might be able to avoid that conclusion is by cleaving to nineteenth century Supreme Court opinions like Presser v. Illinois and U.S. v. Cruikshank that declined to incorporate the Second Amendment, just as the Court at that time declined to incorporate the other provisions of the Bill of Rights. The Court repeatedly rejected this approach during the twentieth century.
So it will be interesting to see whether Heller nods to incorporation — perhaps in a passage that acknowledges the issue, reserves decision on it, and notes that the governing law of incorporation has changed dramatically since Presser and Cruikshank were decided. Such an observation would help encourage the lower courts to consider the issue afresh.
Also of interest is the Brady Campaign's prediction on Heller and the 2A in general:
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=5055064&page=1GUN CONTROL GROUP BRACES FOR COURT LOSS
The nation's leading gun control group filed a "friend of the court" brief back in January defending the gun ban in Washington, DC. But with the Supreme Court posed to hand down a potentially landmark decision in the case, the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Vioence fully expects to lose.
"We've lost the battle on what the Second Amendment means," campaign president Paul Helmke told ABC News. "Seventy-five percent of the public thinks it's an individual right. Why are we arguing a theory anymore? We are concerned about what we can do practically."
Of course they aren't going to take the hint and shut up, they are going keep trying ankle-biting tactics in order to subvert the constitution and the will of the people, but what do you expect from the left.
Any, hope you enjoy Mr. O'Shea's musings.