Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

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Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby Charles L. Cotton » Wed Aug 06, 2008 2:22 pm

CHLs have proven themselves to be responsible and law-abiding and the public deserves to know that the unscrupulous scare tactics used by opponents of campus-carry and other pro-CHL measures are refuted by clear and convincing evidence.

An Excel spreadsheet showing the data related to convictions of Texas CHLs and the general population in Texas over age 21 years is attached. All of the initial work was done by a UT engineering student who worked for me one summer. As you can see, she did a tremendous job putting this together. Just getting accurate population numbers for people age 21 yrs. and over wasn’t easy. Not only did she do all of the research, she chose the presentation method and put it all together. We all owe her our appreciation, as this data was be used extensively in every Texas Legislative Session. Thanks Allison! (BTW, she’s the baby sister of one of our TexasCHLforum members.)

The data is presented in three different formats for both CHLs and the general population; Convictions Per 100,000; Total Convictions; and Percentage of Convictions (% of target population). There is a separate page showing the population by age group.

To most folks, the crimes per 100,000 is the most meaningful and easiest to use for comparison. There are a lot of people who don’t appreciate that a difference of one, two or three decimal places in a comparison of a population nearing 20 million people is absolutely huge, so that’s why crimes per 100,000 is the most commonly used presentation method.

The [url=http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/rsd/chl/reports/convrates.htm[/url] set out on their website are presented in detail, but without a summary to aid review. The attached spreadsheets have both a summary sheet categorized for related crimes, as well as all of the individual detailed crimes set out on the DPS reports. This presentation format was chosen to aid review and comparison, while making it possible to verify that every crime reported by DPS is included in this spreadsheet.

UPDATED FOR 2014:
The numbers just keep getting better, much better! For 2014, Texas Licensees are 22.2 times less likely to commit a crime than is the general population (GP). in 2013, the general population had an overall reduction in crime of 19.6% which reduced the GP to CHLs ratio to 12.12 times less likely. The reduction in the ratio was the result of better crime figures for the GP. In 2014, the crime by the GP went down another 7.7%, yet the GP to CHL ratio still skyrocketed by over 83% to the current 22.2 times less likely to commit a crime. This is amazing folks. While the increasing number of licensees is certainly a factor in the percentage, the number of total crimes by Licensees went down from 158 to 111. That’s a total reduction of 47 (29.7%) at a time when the Licensee population went up 217,909 (30.8%).

Remember, the crime figures for the general population published by the DPS are for person age 21 years and over. That's the only way to make a comparison with Licensees. Therefore, the crime figures posted will be different from the overall crime stats for the State, because those will include people who are between 17 and 20 years of age. In other words, the DPS data and my analysis are conservative because the total number of crimes for the general population would be higher if they included crimes committed by people in the 17 - 20 year old bracket.

Here are some examples of what the data show for the most recent calendar year - 2013:

In 2013, there were 708,048 active CHLs, but only 158 total convictions.

Overall - The general population is over 22.2 times as likely to commit any offense listed by DPS as are CHLs

Assault - The general population is over 35 times more likely to commit an assault as are CHLs

Burglary - The general population over age 21 is almost 72.3 times more likely to commit a burglary as are CHLs

Chas.
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CHL crime comparison 2002 - 2014.pdf
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Crimes per 100k 2014.pdf
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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby Charles L. Cotton » Wed Aug 06, 2008 2:24 pm

This is a copy of a post I put in another thread. I posted it here as a sticky so people could access the data without having to do a search for what will become an old thread/post.

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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby Kalrog » Wed Aug 06, 2008 2:56 pm

Thanks for the great work Allison and Charles! I know that I appreciate it and I am sure that many others do as well.

Charles L. Cotton wrote:I will not publish the data I have, but the track record of CHLs' is much better than that of law enforcement.


Can I ask your reasoning behind this decision? Not intending to denigrate the LE community on this point, but the argument is quite often made that police are supposed to protect us and that they are the model of responsibility. Accept the premise that LEOs are as responsible as a population should be - and then show that CHLs are N times more responsible. Seems to be a good strategy. Is this data you want to keep private for some reason? I would be quite interested in this (in fact I mentioned it on the other thread prior to any hint that you were gathering it) for personal discussions if nothing else.

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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby barres » Wed Aug 06, 2008 4:37 pm

Charles L. Cotton wrote:I will not publish the data I have, but the track record of CHLs' is much better than that of law enforcement.


Would it do any of us any good to ask for copies of the data for our own use ( not to be disseminated)?
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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby casingpoint » Thu Aug 07, 2008 5:27 am

An interesting way to evaluate the morality of a target group. Of the two property loss crimes, burglary and robbery, CHL holders are an underwhelming minority. On account of their familiarity with weapons, they have a deeper understanding of what the immediate consequences can be if caught in the act. :fire Assaults are a different matter. Perhaps the old macho frontier attitude keeps them in the game. And there appears to be a lot of people packing prohibited weapons who aren't licensed for a handgun. :nono: Surprise not. Thanks Allison and Charles. :thumbs2:

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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby thankGod » Thu Aug 07, 2008 8:52 am

Good work Charles and Allison. :thumbs2:
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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby Charles L. Cotton » Thu Aug 07, 2008 10:05 am

casingpoint wrote:. . . Assaults are a different matter. Perhaps the old macho frontier attitude keeps them in the game. . . .


Even with the assault category, the general population is 8 times as likely to commit an assault as a CHL. Stated differently, the track record of CHLs is 827% better than the general population.

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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby Monkey404error » Thu Aug 07, 2008 5:44 pm

Since Allison is going back to school soon, I suggest you get in all your requests for information before she leaves Mr. Cotton's office, so she can get them done before leaving. (yes shes my little sister, so I can suggest extra work for her. mwuahahaha)
And I'll have to thank her and MR. Cotton for getting this, because I can use it at school for my "classmates" who think armed people are prone to violence and the sort.

Edit: guess its too late, its her last day today
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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby Skiprr » Fri Aug 08, 2008 12:45 pm

Give her a big THANKS from all of us. The data tell an important, unbiased story.
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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby artx » Fri Aug 08, 2008 5:23 pm

With this great compilation of stats, the usual lies about CHL holders in schools, bars, sporting events, etc should be easier to turn aside.

I read with great interest the comment Chas made about CHL holders being statistically more law-abiding than LEO's - most schools in bigger districts have the school resource officer - who is armed with their standard duty sidearm- at the school during normal hours. If the public accepts the school resource officers on campus, and CHL holders are MORE law abiding than LEO, the typical arguments against CHL holders being armed in schools/bars/etc totally fail, and we have the stats to back it up.


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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby ScubaSigGuy » Fri Aug 08, 2008 5:48 pm

Great info Charles. We need to get some of those bullet statements printed on the back of no chl / no business cards.

Thanks.
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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby HGWC » Tue Aug 12, 2008 12:13 pm

Charles L. Cotton wrote:CHLs have proven themselves to be responsible and law-abiding and the public deserves to know that the unscrupulous scare tactics used by opponents of campus-carry and other pro-CHL measures are refuted by clear and convincing evidence.


To me, this data doesn't say anything really relevant. We have laws on the books that limit CHLs only to citizens with a long history of abiding by the law. Why would anyone be surprised that law abiding citizens abide by the law?


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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby HGWC » Tue Aug 12, 2008 12:26 pm

ScubaSigGuy wrote:Great info Charles. We need to get some of those bullet statements printed on the back of no chl / no business cards.

Thanks.


It seems to me that using this data in the way you've suggested may be counter productive to other aspects of the promotion of gun rights. Today, through a prohibitive and onerous set of laws, associated costs, delays and investment in time, only a limited number of the most determined citizens are able to exercise their right to legally defend themselves with a firearm in public at all. By definition of these onerous laws, it's not surprising that this subset of citizens have a history of abiding by the law. Using this fact to further the rights of this exclusive subset of citizens may be counter productive to guaranteeing the right to all citizens.

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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby seamusTX » Tue Aug 12, 2008 12:32 pm

You say that you are fairly new to these issues.

In every state where concealed carry has been legalized in the last 20 years, the same old clichés have been repeated endlessly: blood in the streets, wild west, shootout at the O.K. Corral.

These fears have been proven false every time, but we need to keep fighting. The antis periodically issue some warped statistics claiming that CHL holders have committed a huge number of crimes, which they can show only by including traffic offenses and that sort of thing.

We have to defend the ground that we hold in addition to making progress. There was a time when "any gun anywhere" was the law. We lost that because of fear of crime. We have be sure that history is not repeated.

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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby anygunanywhere » Tue Aug 12, 2008 12:34 pm

HGWC wrote: Why would anyone be surprised that law abiding citizens abide by the law?


Because most, if not all antis do not think that even us law abiding folks should even be allowed to own guns, much less exercise our right to keep AND bear arms. The proof is there for the antis should they ever decide to stop feeling with their emotions and start thinking with their brains. The statistics are not really for us, for we know of these truths.

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