Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

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UPDATED: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby Charles L. Cotton » Sun Feb 06, 2011 11:04 am

The Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population has been updated to show the number for 2007, the latest information posted by DPS. We just keep adding to an already remarkable track record. Good work folks, it makes it much easier to pass pro-gun legislation when we can point to numbers like these to counter anti-gunners' lies.

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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby Ashlar » Fri Feb 11, 2011 2:06 pm

Any idea when the 2008 numbers will be out? I'd like to update my graph as well..

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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby seamusTX » Fri Feb 11, 2011 2:10 pm

Ashlar wrote:Any idea when the 2008 numbers will be out?

Probably with budget cuts, I would rather see DPS processing license applications than crunching numbers.

Of course, I have no idea who does what. The statistics might not be processed by CHL Division employees.

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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby WildBill » Fri Feb 11, 2011 3:39 pm

seamusTX wrote:
Ashlar wrote:Any idea when the 2008 numbers will be out?

Probably with budget cuts, I would rather see DPS processing license applications than crunching numbers.

Of course, I have no idea who does what. The statistics might not be processed by CHL Division employees.

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Probably in 2012! ;-)
I have no idea who does what or why it takes so long.
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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby Keith B » Fri Feb 11, 2011 3:43 pm

WildBill wrote:I have no idea who does what or why it takes so long.


Just a guess, but I would think since these are conviction statistics, you have to wait until all cases have been finalized. That can take 2-3 years plus at times.
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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby WildBill » Fri Feb 11, 2011 3:45 pm

Keith B wrote:
WildBill wrote:I have no idea who does what or why it takes so long.


Just a guess, but I would think since these are conviction statistics, you have to wait until all cases have been finalized. That can take 2-3 years plus at times.
Good point. The wheels of justice turn slowly. :tiphat:
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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby seamusTX » Fri Feb 11, 2011 4:15 pm

This kind of data always trails real life by years.

Reporting is not a priority for law-enforcement agencies, and probably we are not willing to pay for making it a priority.

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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby ELB » Fri Feb 11, 2011 4:16 pm

Keith B wrote:Just a guess, but I would think since these are conviction statistics, you have to wait until all cases have been finalized. That can take 2-3 years plus at times.


Not sure I follow this; a conviction is one way the case is finalized, so I would think a conviction in 2008 is goes into the statistics for 2008. That's when it happened. He may appeal and it may take two or 10 years to get it overturned on appeal, but he is still "convicted" during the appeals. (Bunny trail -- I wonder if DPS goes back and updates the stats if a CHL convicted in 2002 wins an appeal in 2006?)

Are you thinking of the time that it takes from arrest to trial to conviction? That can take a long time, but it would not affect the conviction statistics for a given year.
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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby Keith B » Fri Feb 11, 2011 4:22 pm

ELB wrote:
Keith B wrote:Just a guess, but I would think since these are conviction statistics, you have to wait until all cases have been finalized. That can take 2-3 years plus at times.


Not sure I follow this; a conviction is one way the case is finalized, so I would think a conviction in 2008 is goes into the statistics for 2008. That's when it happened. He may appeal and it may take two or 10 years to get it overturned on appeal, but he is still "convicted" during the appeals. (Bunny trail -- I wonder if DPS goes back and updates the stats if a CHL convicted in 2002 wins an appeal in 2006?)

Are you thinking of the time that it takes from arrest to trial to conviction? That can take a long time, but it would not affect the conviction statistics for a given year.


My guess is they are using the year the crime was committed to compare it to the number of CHL's existing that year. That is the only way you can keep the stats consistent. Otherwise, you will be stringing out the convictions across multiple years, and the CHL license Numbers will be different and skewed.
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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby ELB » Fri Feb 11, 2011 4:45 pm

Keith B wrote: ...My guess is they are using the year the crime was committed to compare it to the number of CHL's existing that year. That is the only way you can keep the stats consistent. Otherwise, you will be stringing out the convictions across multiple years, and the CHL license Numbers will be different and skewed.


Ah, I see. That would indeed be a "truer" picture. But I would bet a small sum they don't do that; they just eventually get around to totting up the year's convictions and call it good. It is probably something of a chore to track down, or more likely, wait for, the status of each CHL holder arrested to percolate up from all the various jurisdictions. I'll bet this is not a front-burner project for them (especially during the time when they were taking heat from CHL holders and legislators about the delays in processing applications).
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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby WildBill » Fri Feb 11, 2011 6:11 pm

Calculating reporting "rolling statistics" can be an issue, but I would guess that with the consistanly low number of convictions of CHL holders, it wouldn't make much difference what time period was used for the cut-off date.
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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby Ashlar » Fri Feb 25, 2011 9:41 pm

Aha! We got 2 years of data..

http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/administra ... vrates.htm

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The gap between the rates has never been higher. In 2009, the rate for CHL holders of being convicted of any crime is 25 per 100,000. The rate for the general public over 21 years old? 383 per 100,000. That's 15 times the rate of CHL holders.
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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby Charles L. Cotton » Sat Feb 26, 2011 9:40 pm

What!? I just got updated through 2007! :banghead: Oh well, sleep is optional I guess.

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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby Ashlar » Sun Feb 27, 2011 12:12 am

Chas, I wanted to ask you- how do you aggregate the similar crimes? Could you post how you 'roll up' crimes, for those of us who may not know how the crimes are coded?

If you can explain it, I could combine my spreadsheet with yours, so that you'd have individual crimes as well as an overall rate.
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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby Charles L. Cotton » Sun Feb 27, 2011 3:35 am

Ashlar wrote:Chas, I wanted to ask you- how do you aggregate the similar crimes? Could you post how you 'roll up' crimes, for those of us who may not know how the crimes are coded?

If you can explain it, I could combine my spreadsheet with yours, so that you'd have individual crimes as well as an overall rate.


I already have the individual crimes in the spreadsheet. The first tab is the per 100,000 comparison; the most meaningful to the public. The detail is in the other tabs.

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