Putting the Chess Pieces in place for 2011

[UpTheIrons]

We all know what happened in 2009 as the session came to a close:

"Our" bills were hung up in Calendars.
The Ds were pitching a fit over Voter ID.
Some of the Rs we thought we could count on were apparently not doing enough to get our bills moving.
The session came to a close and there were many, many unhappy people in the firearm community.

I saw that Debbie Riddle has refiled (or is about to refile) the Voter ID bill. What can we do, or can we even do anything, to keep Campus Carry and the Parking Lot bill ahead of Voter ID this time?

Is this at the sole discretion of the committees, the Speaker of the House, or the vagarities of how the bills are filed, submitted and brought to official status? I'm not very well versed on how the inner workings work, but I can call and pitch a (well-behaved) fit of my own when needed.

I'm not looking for any revelations of the TSRA's plans for getting legislation passed, I just wonder if/how we can avoid the unconscionable mess of last session.

[killerfly128]

Honestly I think the voter ID bill is more important than anything carry related. There is no reason they shouldn't be able to make room for all 3 though.

[seamusTX]

I don't know the answer to your question, but I want to remind people how precarious the situation is.

The Texas House of Representatives has 150 members. Every seat is up for election every two years. Most incumbents who run for re-election succeed.

In 2009 the House had 77 Republican members and 73 Democrats.

If TWO seats change from Republican to Democratic, the House will be deadlocked. If three change, the Democrats will control the House. No one can reliably predict who the next Speaker would be.

- Jim
[Edited to correct typo]

[seamusTX]

Honestly I think the voter ID bill is more important than anything carry related. There is no reason they shouldn't be able to make room for all 3 though.

How many people who were not actually eligible to vote cast votes in 2008?

How many made a difference in any election?

How many were prosecuted for voter fraud?

There is such a thing as the perfect being the enemy of the good, and we saw it in action in 2009.

- Jim

[Liberty]

Honestly I think the voter ID bill is more important than anything carry related. There is no reason they shouldn't be able to make room for all 3 though.

How many people who were not actually eligible to vote cast votes in 2008?

How many made a difference in any election?

How many were prosecuted for voter fraud?

There is such a thing as the perfect being the enemy of the good, and we saw it in action in 2009.

- Jim

We hear a lot about abuse and stolen elections, but in Texas there has been very few reports of Acornians stealing elections. If there were reported wide spread reports of Illegals votiting in Texas and changing the results, I would be more concerned. The danger present at our inner city campuses is real, disarming workers is a real danger for many of us. I had to show either a voter card or ID when I vote. Does this mean that We shouldn't give voter ID a shot ? of course, but we expect politicians not to just vote. but to actually work to get our ( their constituents ) agenda passed. My Rep worked very hard during the last session. Unfortunatly he was democrat and played a major part it stonewalling the session so that little will get through. If our Conservative Reps had worked just as hard, and actually dealt with concerns of the Democrats. We would have had our bills passed, and the Dems would have had their token victory. Instead although the minority the Democrats came out the clear winners and the conservatives were the chumps.

Debby Riddle is doing well by introducing the Voter ID Bill. Hopefully we get a few more Republicans who will actually fight for the right things.

[Ziran]

Well voting is one of the most important and critical tasks in a republic. It is unconscionable that you can vote without ID but you need one just to buy a beer.

The only reason democrats oppose it is because of the voter fraud on their behalf by people like ACORN that ID-less voting makes possible.

[seamusTX]

The political reality is that the voter ID bill died, and so did a lot of other legislation that both parties wanted. The status quo remained unchanged.

Now who won, and what did they win?

How is a rerun of this situation going to be avoided in 2011?

- Jim

[UpTheIrons]

The political reality is that the voter ID bill died, and so did a lot of other legislation that both parties wanted. The status quo remained unchanged.

Now who won, and what did they win?

How is a rerun of this situation going to be avoided in 2011?

- Jim

Thanks, Jim. This is what I'm getting at. I think the Voter ID bill is important, but it is not as important as the two carry bills. I can live without Voter ID this session if Campus Carry and Parking Lot make it through.

I know one can't make statistical inferences based on anecdotal evidence, but there just isn't any fraud in my part of the world. I was an election judge for 3 years in Guadalupe County (including the '04 presidential election), and never saw one case. We had to tell people to go elsewhere, but we never had anything fishy show up (two or three provisional ballots, nothing more). Of course, I was working on the R side in all the primaries, so I can't really talk too much about what happened on the D side of the room. Go to El Paso, Houston, or San Antonio and the situation may well be different, but I never read of one case of proven fraud in Texas.

Whose ears must we bend to get the wheels in motion now on this? Or can we even do it, that's my real concern.

[seamusTX]

In my totally uninformed amateur opinion, any ear-bending or button-holing would be useless until the results of the November 2010 election are in and committee assignments are known.

Some incumbents have no challenger and are guaranteed re-election short of an indictment or act of God. Some have weak opponents. Some are retiring, and their seats are up for grabs. Predicting what is going to happen there is above my pay grade.

When Charles Cotton or Alice Tripp says Jump, I'll crank up the fax machine.

There's another huge issue in the 2011 session: redistricting. I'm sure y'all remember how that tied the Legislature in knots last time.

- Jim

[Douva]

I don't know the answer to your question, but I want to remind people how precarious the situation is.

The Texas House of Representatives has 150 members. Every seat is up for election every two years. Most incumbents who run for re-election succeed.

In 2009 the House had 77 Republican members and 73 Democrats.

If TWO seats change from Republican to Democratic, the House will be deadlocked. If three change, the Democrats will control the House. No one can reliably predict who the next Speaker would be.

- Jim
[Edited to correct typo]

Gun rights is not a partisan issue in Texas. The Republicans could lose a dozen seats in the House, and a majority of the Representatives would still hold "A" ratings from the TSRA. With that said, all indications at this point (4 months before the general election) suggest that gun advocates will gain seats in the Texas House, come November.

[seamusTX]

Gun rights is not a partisan issue in Texas. The Republicans could lose a dozen seats in the House, and a majority of the Representatives would still hold "A" ratings from the TSRA.

This is most likely true. At any rate, I won't argue about that point.

The problem is that a single committee chairman with constipation can allow bills to die of neglect without even coming up for a vote. Other issues can monopolize the attention of legislators and consume political capital, which seems to be a limited resource.

We need representatives that are positively in favor of promoting the right to keep and bear arms, not just ones that are indifferent or timid about challenging other constituencies (such as chambers of commerce or industry groups that oppose parking lot carry, among other issues that we are concerned about).

- Jim

[Douva]

The problem is that a single committee chairman with constipation can allow bills to die of neglect without even coming up for a vote. Other issues can monopolize the attention of legislators and consume political capital, which seems to be a limited resource.

Unfortunately, that's the nature of the beast.

[ELB]

As is UptheIrons, I am also an election judge in Guadalupe County. No, doesn't look like much election fraud here. Occasional
fight, maybe. Rarely does anyone show up without either a driver's license or a registration card, and many of those with a registration card pull out their DL anyway. (and the ones who don't use a DL often use a CHL ) So if GC is an example of how low fraud it, it is also an example of how ludicrous it is to claim it is difficult for anyone to get a photo ID. In fact, the only times I can remember anyone trying to use a utility bill and such to vote was during the Nov 2008 election - and it was pretty clear which party they were from.

But Guadalupe is largely a rural, republican county, and this is not the type of area that voter fraud happens in. Voter Fraud occurs in large Democratic cities. It is also something that Federal DOJ civil rights division clearly has no interest in pursuing no matter how blatant. They are only interested in making voting as easy as possible for the widest possible population, and judge any attempt at verification as "intimidation." Ergo it is up to the states to police their own elections.

Voter fraud is also one of those crimes that is hard to detect once it happens, and it takes some serious digging to bring it out. Most districts do not have anywhere near 100% voter turnout -- often less than 50%. That means a dedicated fraudster can arrange for enough fraudulent voters to throw an election, but it will not be enough to make the totals look odd. Detroit and Chicago are masters at this, and I'll bet if you dug into DC's elections, all kinds of interesting things would fall out.

All the voter ID bills really require is a photo on the ID from a semi-official source. That is not an insurmountable hurdle for anyone, I don't care what the democrats bellyache about. The examples the media trotted out last time were absolutely absurd. It basically amounted to people who refused to take any route available to them to get a photo ID, and then complain they were being "disenfranchised." Opposition to photo ID is pretty much the same as support for open ballot unionizing elections -- it makes it easier to throw an election.

The Rep part should have roasted the Dems over their chubbing on this issue.

No there is no GOOD reason Voter ID and campus carry and the parking lot bill shouldn't all come together in the next session. I am not so sure that some squishy republicans were not happy to have the Dems do chubbing over Voter ID, knowing it would delay the campus and parking lot bills and give them cover to say "I was for it but there was nothing I could do."

As for those A=rated democrats -- remember, Al Gore was an A-rated democrat too.

[stevie_d_64]

Well, let me chime in here...I happen to be an expert on this whole Voter ID mess...A part of me says we don't need it if more of us get involved...But they will still try to get it through this time, again...

Let me recommend that if there are folks in this community that are that concerned abot the outcome or the conduct of elections and their operations at our polling locations, I strongly suggest you get invoved and become an election official, (i.e.: Election Judge, Alternate Judge, Clerk or even a poll watcher)...

And I would get plugged into this effort through your county parties, get trained and get on the list to be assigned to a precinct (polling location) in time for the next election in November...We have time to do this and it not be a last minute deal...

And I would not want to be assigned to a polling location that has had few if no problems noted at the county clerks office...I would get down and dirty with those precincts that do have some irregularities, and watch them like a hawk...Nothing like a fair set of eyes and ears watching these crews work those polls...

They will not like you, they will say some pretty awful things to you, and try to run you off (if you are a poll watcher)...But go through the training, see what the mechanisms are in place for you to report these anomolies...

This is how we should be taking care of and cleaning up our process...

Early voting locations need watching and trained election officials volunteering at that time as well...A lot of hinky stuff goes on there as well...

Remember, if we lose 2 or more seats...All this other stuff is a pipe dream...

[UpTheIrons]

I agree now that there isn't much good in doing too much before November, but since my local rep (Kuempel) is pretty much a lock for reelection, I could probably start laying the groundwork now with him. However, if there are others nearby who need help getting reelected, I may have to pitch in on a campaign somehow. I think Wentworth is pretty safe on the senate side, too, so I may need to start laying some groundwork there, too.

Still, it all hangs on November...

Thanks for helping me think out loud.