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by ELB
Wed Jan 15, 2020 10:36 am
Forum: Off-Topic
Topic: The war with Iran
Replies: 184
Views: 159671

Re: The war with Iran

Yes they deliberately shot it down. The fact that it was a regularly scheduled flight does not mean their air defense correctly identified it (nor is misidentification an "excuse.")

The USS Vincennes shot down a regularly scheduled flight as well, after misidentifying it as a hostile even though they had other indications it was a commercial flight. In an earlier career I spent some time reviewing and taping AWACS mission displays of aircraft incidents, and even though our guys are very very good they sometimes make ID errors in the heat of the moment*. Generally they corrected them without catastrophic results from the misidentification.

Given that there was no benefit to Iran to shoot down one of their own airliners full of their own people without a way to pin it on somebody else, the positive (for Iran) reinforcement and mindset that came with previously shooting down a US drone, combined with an attitude like this:
A senior Iranian commander who admitted to Iran's role in the recent downing of a Ukrainian airplane bragged in 2016 that even the youngest Iranian officers have unilateral authority to conduct strikes like the one that downed the Ukrainian plane, killing every civilian aboard, according to video obtained by the Washington Free Beacon.
still pushes the pointer towards "major screw-up".

https://freebeacon.com/national-securit ... wn-planes/

*In fact, this was my first recognition that eye-witness testimony is not necessarily very reliable. I would replay a mission for a weapons controller and asking him to explain what was going on while taping the mission display and his voice. We would let him run through it several times before making the final tape. I was often surprised at how much his explanation would change from the first run-through to the last, as he picked up on things that he hadn't noticed before.
by ELB
Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:02 pm
Forum: Off-Topic
Topic: The war with Iran
Replies: 184
Views: 159671

Re: The war with Iran

philip964 wrote: Tue Jan 14, 2020 3:52 pm https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/14/worl ... video.html

Airliner hit by two missiles 30 seconds apart.

Was it deliberate?
Oh they deliberately shot down the airplane. Launching more than one missile at an airborne target is pretty standard procedure. I do believe though that they misidentified it as hostile, rather than knowingly shot down an airliner. Never ascribe to malice what can be explained by stupidity and all that.

If they had wanted Trump to take the blame they would have been prepared with press releases in their own and sympathetic international news media claiming that American drones or stealth aircraft or some such had been spotted in the area and had deliberately used the airliner as a shield. Instead they fumbled around with "mechanical difficulties" for a day or so.
by ELB
Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:29 pm
Forum: Off-Topic
Topic: The war with Iran
Replies: 184
Views: 159671

Re: The war with Iran

RicoTX wrote: Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:17 pm Iran just admitted they shot the plane down by mistake.

https://www.wate.com/news/national-worl ... -jetliner/
by ELB
Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:25 am
Forum: Off-Topic
Topic: The war with Iran
Replies: 184
Views: 159671

Re: The war with Iran

Oil and stock markets stable today, so they believe Iran has backed down. So far in this phase of the war the Iranians have killed more Iranians than the US has.
by ELB
Sat Jan 04, 2020 11:24 pm
Forum: Off-Topic
Topic: The war with Iran
Replies: 184
Views: 159671

Re: The war with Iran

Iran has been at war with US for 40 years, with a short time out just ling enough to let Obama ship them pallets of cash ti build bigger bombs with.

There’s nothing they are going to do now they they wouldn’t have done otherwise. They will however be a little less bold about parading their leaders around in Iraq.

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