TexasCHLforum.com

Relevant only regarding the logic versus emotion worldviews, but an interesting piece from the NRA-ILA yesterday, "Tracing Spurious Claims." In part:

Since leading anti-gun researchers acknowledged no connection between the 2020 surge in firearms sales and violence, unscrupulous anti-gun advocates must cite underwhelming statistics as meaningful evidence.

That’s what The Trace did, in an article written in collaboration with FiveThirtyEight.... Bloomberg’s activist-journalists looked at ATF reports showing the number of firearms traced broken out by the time between retail sale and tracing. They report that the number of firearms traced within a year of retail sale increased significantly from 2019 to 2020.... So, the number of firearms traced within a year increased in a year in which the number of all guns sold increased. That seems proportional. The Trace covers this point, too: the ratio of guns traced within seven months of retail sale to all gun sales has increased annually since 2013. That sounds much more dramatic than the proportion increased from about 0.11% to 0.3% from 2013 through 2020. That is eleven-one-hundredths of a percent to three-tenths of a percent. Naturally, that means that 99.7% of firearms are not traced within seven months of their acquisition.

That pretty much sums up the screams about a gun violence epidemic in the United States. By the National Vital Statistics System Mortality Data--and using 2018 data to take COVID out of the equation--firearm homicides accounted for 10,484 deaths, or 3.1 per 100,000 population. The total number of deaths was 2,839,205; firearm homicides accounted for 0.37%. The odds of your dying by an accidental cause that was not a firearm--falling off a ladder or being in a car crash for instance--were 1,594.1% greater than dying by firearm homicide.

For 2020 COVID (provisionally) comes in at 3rd place as a leading cause of death, and we had 3,358,814 total deaths last year. You know all the shouts and moans and hair-pulling from Giffords and other anti-gun organizations about the massive increase in gun deaths in 2020? Thing is, the numbers they use are still provisionary and unreliable, per the CDC, and they include everything from homicides to suicides to accidental shootings to Alec Baldwin (I couldn't resist).

Here are the data from Statista: https://www.statista.com/statistics/249 ... ed-states/. The raw numbers are definitely up: 13,620 homicides by firearm. But the number of total deaths was also up. Compared to 2018's 0.37% deaths by firearm homicide, where were we in the "gun violence epidemic" in 2020 when records were being regularly shattered for NICS checks? A whopping 0.41%. A staggering increase of 0.04%. That's four one-hundredths of a percent, or a decimal value of 0.0004. Based on a current population estimate of 333.85 million, that means the firearm homicide rate has actually decreased; it would now be 2.5 per 100,000 rather than 2018's 3.1.

I know. Completely wrong topic. But I got on a roll...

srothstein wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 11:22 pm Of course, he is a UT grad, so that might help explain it.

The Annoyed Man wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 2:42 pm

Rafe wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 1:27 pm She probably won't speak to me for a couple of weeks anyway. Oh well.

I imagine that you are desolate. PM me if you need prayer support.

I might. Sniff. Snowflake withdrawal is hard.

She's an old friend; we go back to right after college. We've drifted more apart in our views--of course I don't feel mine have changed much; but she probably doesn't feel hers have, either--but as long we don't talk politics, we're fine. We talk a few times a month, sometimes for up to an hour.

For the life of me, I can't in recent memory recall an actual debate with someone who leans more than about -10% left. There seems to seldom be any rationality, any applied logic or critical thinking. All emotions and perceptions. It must have been how Eratosthenes felt trying to convince people that the world wasn't flat. "Poppycock! Your evidence means nothing! It's one of your radical science-conservative tricks! It's all Trump's doing!"

tomneal wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 8:45 am Today's fun fact:
Greta Thunberg and Kyle Rittenhouse were born on the same day

Hm. Let's see. If I had the opportunity to sit down and have a coffee and chat, but could choose only one of them...

Interestingly, Kyle just came up in a phone call with a Very Democrat friend. She called to point to the sentence handed down to truck driver Rogel Aguilera-Mederos for the April 2019 wreck that killed four people in Colorado. Her hypothesis was that the courts are rigged by conservatives and that white Rittenhouse got off scot free after murdering two men and wounding another with an Evil Black Rifle, while Latino Aguilera-Mederos had the book thrown at him with 110-year sentence just because his brakes failed. I didn't follow the Colorado case closely, but unwisely contradicted my friend by telling her that if was simple, accidental mechanical failure, Aguilera-Mederos would have been neither culpable nor negligent and it would never have gone to trial.

She said I was completely mistaken. It was nothing but an accident; the brakes failed. And as proof she said that's why an online petition to release Aguilera-Mederos has over 3 million signatures. But that there had been videos of Rittenhouse shooting those men. That the entire justice system is rigged and our country is in rapid decline all thanks to conservatives.

I made my second mistake and asked her if she actually had any details about the two cases, had followed the trials or knew the specific charges and verdicts.

To her credit, she came clean and said that (in not so many words; I'm paraphrasing) to her, facts don't matter. That (like seemingly all ardent leftists) it's what she knows that counts. And she knows a 26 man in Colorado who has skin that's brown was sentenced to 110 years just because the brakes on his truck failed.

My third mistake was a quick Google. "Actually," I said, "at trial the jury found Aguilera-Mederos guilty of 4 counts of vehicular homicide, 6 counts of first-degree assault, 10 counts of attempted first-degree assault, 4 counts of careless driving causing death, 2 counts of vehicular assault and 1 count of reckless driving. The DA's office says that they proposed plea deals to him, but that he declined to consider any alternative other than what would amount to a Class C Misdemeanor in Texas, basically a traffic citation. There's no way the charges could even have been brought, much less the jury find him guilty on all counts, if the crash was a result of accidental, mechanical failure.

"It seems," I said, "that the big furor over the sentence has to do with Colorado legislation that's been on the books for almost 30 years, a minimum-mandatory sentence provision for certain violent crimes. So the penalty ruling looks like it was largely out of the judge's hands, and Colorado law says the affected convictions have to be subsequent, the time can't be served consecutively. That's why the very long sentence."

"So tell me why Rittenhouse got away with murder without so much as a wrist-slap, and he used an assault rifle?!"

"Well, first, it wasn't an assault rifle. And second, the jury found him not guilty on all charges. He didn't 'get away' with anything. He was found not guilty, and rightly so. I followed that trial closely."

The call ended, but before she hung up she said something about my close-mindedness being tragic and that I'm incapable of applying logic to the humanity of situations. I found the "applying logic" part pretty humorous, but I didn't call her back to tell her that. She probably won't speak to me for a couple of weeks anyway. Oh well.

Ruark wrote: ↑Tue Nov 30, 2021 12:44 pm

I Haven't Bought Levi's in YEARS

Real cowboys wear Wranglers, anyway...

13MWZ's or 13MWZPW's

Yep. A thumbs-up for Wrangler.

On Tucker tonight:

Not guilty, count 1
Not guilty, count 2
Not guilty, count 3
Not guilty, count 4
Not guilty, count 5

TxRVer wrote: ↑Tue Nov 16, 2021 10:31 am Based on Binger's words own words, he could have been shot in self-defense when he pointed the rifle at the jury.

What I wouldn't have given to have seen the bailiff draw down on him when he did that and start shouting "Drop the weapon! Drop the weapon!"

Rafe wrote: ↑Sun Nov 14, 2021 5:28 pm Powerboatr asked a good question: Does anybody know if the jury is sequestered? Or did they all see the news like we did that the governor had called in the National Guard?

Well, we have our answer this morning. No sequestration.

.50 BMG incendiaries make a noticeable statement.

Powerboatr asked a good question: Does anybody know if the jury is sequestered? Or did they all see the news like we did that the governor had called in the National Guard?

Wisconsin braces for Kyle Rittenhouse trial outcome with 500 National Guard members
https://abc13.com/kyle-rittenhouse-tria ... /11235498/

That's when [following closing arguments that start Monday] the jury could begin their deliberations. The city of Kenosha has already started bracing for the outcome.

While Kenosha has not seen any protests or demonstrations as the trial has gone on, the state isn't taking any chances. Gov. Tony Evers sent in about 500 members of the Wisconsin National Guard for active duty to help local law enforcement.

More at:
https://kstp.com/minnesota-news/nationa ... a/6300103/
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news ... se-verdict

Wisconsin Gov. Evers issued a statement that is typically politi-speak and doesn't say much: "We continue to be in close contact with our partners at the local level to ensure the state provides support and resources to help keep the Kenosha community and greater area safe. The Kenosha community has been strong, resilient, and has come together through incredibly difficult times these past two years, and that healing is still ongoing. I urge folks who are otherwise not from the area to please respect the community by reconsidering any plans to travel there and encourage those who might choose to assemble and exercise their First Amendment rights to do so safely and peacefully."

If BLM overtly threatens New York City with "riots" and "fire" and "bloodshed" if new mayor Eric Adams brings back the NYPD's anti-crime unit (from Fox 5 NY November 11), do we think that anarchists would let a good opportunity go to waste in Kenosha? We'll see next week, I suppose...

philip964 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 08, 2021 7:00 pm https://news.yahoo.com/kyle-rittenhouse ... 16101.html

Victim delivers tearful testimony in teens murder trial.

It’s like it’s two different trials are going on.

You got that right. The headlines for David Muir's ABC World News 45 minutes ago included, as the second item, something to effect of "Dramatic testimony today in the Kyle Rittenhouse trial in Wisconsin where the survivor said...he thought he was going to die." The last 6 words read slowly with announcer-voice gravitas.