Search found 11 matches

by SQLGeek
Fri Dec 18, 2020 2:10 pm
Forum: Off-Topic
Topic: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.
Replies: 2015
Views: 515819

Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

philip964 wrote: Fri Dec 18, 2020 1:51 pm
wheelgun1958 wrote: Fri Dec 18, 2020 12:29 pm Rumor is that Trump had the vaccines engineered so that anyone taking it will vote for him in 2024.

:lol::
Can’t run in 2024. Trump can only serve 8 years, unless he can get the constitution changed. 22nd Amenent.
Heh well he's not going to be POTUS as of January so he will get a shot at another term in 2024.
by SQLGeek
Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:38 pm
Forum: Off-Topic
Topic: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.
Replies: 2015
Views: 515819

Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

Looks like the difference could be explained by the number of counties included in your source vs TMC. Yours has 19 counties, TMC is using 9 counties, my guess is Harris and the 8 closest surrounding.
by SQLGeek
Thu Oct 01, 2020 7:32 pm
Forum: Off-Topic
Topic: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.
Replies: 2015
Views: 515819

Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

TMC's numbers are for the 9 counties in the Houston metro. For yesterday, they reported 543 new cases in the Greater Houston plus a backlog of 316 older cases. That's a huge discrepancy.
by SQLGeek
Thu Oct 01, 2020 4:14 pm
Forum: Off-Topic
Topic: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.
Replies: 2015
Views: 515819

Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

Where are you getting your Houston case numbers? New cases don't match what TMC is publishing.
by SQLGeek
Wed Sep 30, 2020 1:28 pm
Forum: Off-Topic
Topic: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.
Replies: 2015
Views: 515819

Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

Latest in Houston from TMC as of yesterday's numbers (published today).

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Daily updates found here:

https://www.tmc.edu/
by SQLGeek
Wed Sep 30, 2020 9:57 am
Forum: Off-Topic
Topic: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.
Replies: 2015
Views: 515819

Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

Grayling813 wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 1:11 pm Paging Governor Abbott....

Gov. DeSantis Announces the Immediate End to COVID Restrictions in Florida
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/elliebufk ... t-n2576925
Interesting. I'm curious to see how the case load will go. Could be a good sample for the rest of the country.
by SQLGeek
Wed Sep 02, 2020 1:54 pm
Forum: Off-Topic
Topic: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.
Replies: 2015
Views: 515819

Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

srothstein wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 11:14 am
Rafe wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 12:27 amAnd I'm not quite sure what the hullabaloo is from Fox News or any other sources, really.
From what I have seen, the hullabaloo recently is about how to define a COVID death and the way CDC reports it. The CDC recently reported that 94% of the people who had died from COVID also had some co-morbidity. People who want to say that COVID is not as serious jumped on this to say that COVID really only killed 6% of the deaths and the co-morbidities would have killed the rest. People who want to show COVID is more serious say these people would have lived with their other problems anyway if they had not caught COVID.

I believe that the truth on COVID is probably somewhere in the middle. Some of the people with COVID and co-morbidities certainly would have died anyway. I am also certain some of them would have lived for years anyway. One of the best examples of the problem is when they list obesity as the existing condition. A person can be as few as 20 pounds overweight or as much as 100 pounds overweight and still be obese. I think the guy with the extra 20 pounds would probably last a long time, but the guy with the extra 100 pounds is probably close to a life threatening condition already.

The real problem is that by listing the existing conditions, it confuses how serious COVID is. This happens with other diseases also. Flu for example is much more deadly in the elderly and in people with compromised immune systems than it is in healthy younger people.

I remember one statement from an author asking if a person who is more than 80 can really be said to have died from anything other than old age.
Well said, Steve. On another forum, an ED MD chimed in that in general it is rare that one cause of death is listed.
by SQLGeek
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:30 pm
Forum: Off-Topic
Topic: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.
Replies: 2015
Views: 515819

Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19) from China: Its going to be bad.

philip964 wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:53 pm
philip964 wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:47 am March 13, 2020- 137,000 world, 5000 dead, 1700 in the US. Almost 15,000 in Italy. China is still holding near 80,000

March 16, 2020- 169,387 world, 6513 dead, 3774 in US. 24,745 in Italy with 1809 deaths. China is still holding near 80,000. Texas has 77 Houston at 30

March 17, 2020- 196,639 world. 7893 dead. 5894 in US. 32,506 in Italy with 2503 deaths. Houston at 36.

March 18, 2020- 204,277 world. 8,246 dead. 6519 in US. 31,506 in Italy with 2503 deaths. 81,102 in China. Texas has 132 Houston at 39
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboar ... 7b48e9ecf6

The map of Africa now seems to have sprinkling of small dots evenly spaced across the continent. Not a good sign.
Take the placement of the dots with a huge grain of salt. They are centered on the country they represent. They don't show hot spots in a continent so they aren't representative of where cases are accumulating. Even the relative sizes of the dots doesn't show much beyond overall comparative numbers for a country compared to the total population. I've stopped referring to the Johns Hopkins map as much when they stopped breaking down the US by county and instead went to state.
by SQLGeek
Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:18 am
Forum: Off-Topic
Topic: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.
Replies: 2015
Views: 515819

Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19) from China: Its going to be bad.

jason812 wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:06 am
Dr. at White House press conference. She was asked the mortality rate and said 0.7%.
That may be her estimate once it's all said and done but that's not the current rate based on known cases. I'd like to know what context that was given by her.
I calculated the US.
115 current deaths out of 6,508 cases puts it currently at 1.76%.

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en
by SQLGeek
Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:33 pm
Forum: Off-Topic
Topic: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.
Replies: 2015
Views: 515819

Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19) from China: Its going to be bad.

What lady in what press conference?

The WHO currently is estimating a case fatality rate of 3.4% but that may turn out to be high. Their initial estimate was 2%.

The current CFR in the US is about 1.8% but we just aren't testing enough yet to know for sure.
by SQLGeek
Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:49 pm
Forum: Off-Topic
Topic: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.
Replies: 2015
Views: 515819

Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19) from China: Its going to be bad.

srothstein wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 5:03 pm For comparison, between Oct. 1, 2019 and March 7, 2020, the US had between 36,000,000 and 51,000,000 cases of the flu, 17,000,000 to 24,000,000 of which required medical visits, 370,000 to 670,000 of which required hospitalizations, and between 22,000 and 55,000 deaths caused by the flu.

Source: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/pr ... imates.htm
The case fatality rate for COVID-19 is still hard to pin down but I've seen numbers float from 2-4%.

Considering there's no current vaccination and no herd immunity of any kind, taking the low number of infected of 36,000,000 seems prudent if not conservative.

A 1% CFR gives us 360,000 deaths. 4% ~1.4 million.

Seems about 20% of cases are more than moderate. 7.2 million cases.

5% of cases are critical. 1.8 million.

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