The Annoyed Man wrote:Harris County's population is approximately 4,070,989 people in 2009. Dallas County's population for 2009 is 2,451,730; and Tarrant County's population is 1,789,900. (
Source for all three figures.) So, not counting Collin and Denton Counties, the DFW metroplex accounts for a total of 4,241,630 people — a larger population than Harris County. But the aggregate CHL apps approved for Dallas and Tarrant Counties is 13.33%. If everything else were equal and the percentage of approved applications per 1000 citizens were a constant, you would expect that aggregate percentage for both counties to be higher than Harris County's.
Please understand, I'm not disputing the results. I'm trying to
understand them. My previous comments about liberal mayors, the HPD, etc. were not based on any first hand knowledge. They were based almost entirely on what I've read on
this board over the past two years, which has left me with the distinct impression that HPD was not CHL friendly, previous Mayor White was not CHL friendly, and the former DA was not CHL friendly.
I can understand the after effects of Katrina and Ike at motivators to acquire a CHL.
I had originally thought the lower numbers for Dallas county *might* be due to it's more liberal composition.
Since race was included in the statistics, (Do they combine hispanic into white?) I also looked at that, and in 2008
Dallas County was 20.7% black versus 14.2% for
Tarrant County. If blacks were getting CHLs at a similar rate as to whites, one might expect to see about 12% new CHLs going to blacks across
Texas, but instead it is 6.3%. Maybe that is part of the story?
That explanation might not necessarily follow with
Harris county, though, which is 18.7% black - but is also more conservative than Dallas county, based on 2008 presidential election results which, admittedly, doesn't really account for independents, but gives a general idea of political ideology.
Travis county, which is more liberal than Dallas county only has 8.8% black population.
Looking at the per capita CHLs issued for the four counties, and assuming approximately equal eligibility per capita, but not accounting for it:
county --- CHLs / Population --- Black Pop. --- McCain / Obama
Travis County: 3,113 / 1,026,158 -> 0.30% --- 8.8% --- 34 / 63
Dallas County: 8,175 / 2,451,730 -> 0.33% --- 20.7% --- 42 / 57
Harris County: 23,967 / 4,070,989 -> 0.59% --- 18.7% --- 49 / 50
Tarrant County: 10,325 / 1,789,900 -> 0.57% --- 14.2% --- 55 / 44
I started to break it down by zip codes, but that is a lot of work to try to compile meaningful info. I think demographics and political ideology are definitely factors, but not the entire story.
the prof was Greek and he may as well been speakin' it. Another thought is the increase in crime since Katrina and the fact that while Bill White was in office, Houston was a "santuary city" for illegals. People just want to feel a little more secure around these parts.
