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Re: Let the fun begin! Tropical Depression 1
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 7:18 pm
by Frost
Re: Let the fun begin! Tropical Depression 1
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 7:28 pm
by canvasbck
Unfortunately, GFS is one of the more reliable dynamic models.
Edit, looks like my pony is slow
Re: Let the fun begin! Tropical Depression 1
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 8:58 am
by gregthehand
It looks like it's going to go in at Harlingen/Brownsville and then head west. Here in Houston we'll probably just get a lot of rain.
Re: Let the fun begin! Tropical Depression 1
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 9:31 am
by Frost
Keep on your toes, significat deviations from the forecasts have happened in the past.
This consensus forecast has narrowed in on the region near the Texas/Mexico border as being the most likely landfall location, with the usual cone of uncertainty surrounding it. The northernmost landfall location is Port O'Connor, as predicted by the Canadian model. The southernmost landfall location is near Tampico, Mexico, as predicted by the ECMWF model. Alex's landfall time varies from Wednesday evening to Thursday morning. Which model should you trust? Last year, the best performing models at the 3 day forecast period were the GFS, Canadian, ECMWF, and GFDL. Three out of four of those models are predicting a landfall between Brownsville and Corpus Christi, with only the ECMWF model predicting a landfall well south of the Texas border. With steering currents relatively weak, the uncertainty in landfall location is high. The average error in an NHC 72-hour track forecast last year was 230 miles, which is about the distance from Brownsville to Port O'Connor. Consider also that the NHC cone of uncertainty is the region where 2/3 of the time (using the last 5 years of statistics) the center of a storm will go. That means that 1/3 of the time a storm will not be in the cone of uncertainty.
Re: Let the fun begin! Tropical Depression 1
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 10:34 am
by pbwalker
This puppy is sitting in record setting warm water, so it could EASILY pop up to a Cat 2 by the time it hits land. A lot of models are showing a more northern track than the NHC. But the "Cone of Uncertainty" is getting a little tighter. The biggest factor in where this will go is the frontal boundary NW of us. If that line picks up speed, this storm is going to be pushed much further north. If it sits tight, Mexico impact. If I were in B'ville up to Corpus, I'd keep up on this...

Re: Let the fun begin! Tropical Depression 1
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 11:02 am
by ES4Me
gigag04 wrote:Hurricanes are a real pain on LE/Fire/EMS
And people who are in charge of operations and security at ports.

Love my job....don't love hurricane season!
Re: Let the fun begin! Tropical Depression 1
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 3:06 pm
by pbwalker
pbwalker wrote:This puppy is sitting in record setting warm water, so it could EASILY pop up to a Cat 2 by the time it hits land. A lot of models are showing a more northern track than the NHC. But the "Cone of Uncertainty" is getting a little tighter. The biggest factor in where this will go is the frontal boundary NW of us. If that line picks up speed, this storm is going to be pushed much further north. If it sits tight, Mexico impact. If I were in B'ville up to Corpus, I'd keep up on this...
It's showing a Cat2 impact now... (as of the time of this post...these images are dynamic). I think the NHC is off (to the south) a bit on their prediction. My guess now, based on the info I have, is a landfall around Port Mansfield. But we'll see!

Re: Let the fun begin! Tropical Depression 1
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 7:14 pm
by tacticool
glbedd53 wrote:Might want to think about gettin some gasoline too.
No problem. I keep the gas tank at least half full.
Re: Let the fun begin! Tropical Depression 1
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 8:34 pm
by glbedd53
I meant for a generator, if you have one as well as the vehicles, unless you can stay gone til the lights come back on. We stayed in Arkansas for a week during Ike and still had 4 days before we got power after we came home.
Re: Let the fun begin! Tropical Depression 1
Posted: Sun Jul 04, 2010 8:51 pm
by MasterofFajitas