Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

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Rafe
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Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

#751

Post by Rafe » Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:44 am

philip964 wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:26 am
OMG Representative Sheila Jackson Lee is speaking live on TV from the opening of a new coronavirus drive thru testing center in Sugarland, Texas.

She was made for this crisis.
The real question is, why was she made in the first place? :???:

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Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

#752

Post by ELB » Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:49 am

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Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

#753

Post by imkopaka » Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:51 am

Ruark wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:39 am
imkopaka wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:16 am
changes in three features -- levels of the liver enzyme alanine aminotransferase (ALT), reported body aches, and hemoglobin levels –- were most accurately predictive of subsequent, severe disease.
I hate incomplete information like this. What about hemoglobin levels? Do they mean high, or low? Is there ANY information about WHAT levels of ALT and hemoglobin are significant?
It's a French news story translated to English by Yahoo. Their audience can't use that information, so most won't care. Let me take a look around and see if I can find any medical journals on the topic.
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Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

#754

Post by imkopaka » Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:01 am

imkopaka wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:51 am
Ruark wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:39 am
imkopaka wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:16 am
changes in three features -- levels of the liver enzyme alanine aminotransferase (ALT), reported body aches, and hemoglobin levels –- were most accurately predictive of subsequent, severe disease.
I hate incomplete information like this. What about hemoglobin levels? Do they mean high, or low? Is there ANY information about WHAT levels of ALT and hemoglobin are significant?
It's a French news story translated to English by Yahoo. Their audience can't use that information, so most won't care. Let me take a look around and see if I can find any medical journals on the topic.
Boom. The actual journal text published by the research team (free full text access): http://www.techscience.com/cmc/v63n1/38464
A mildly elevated alanine aminotransferase (ALT) (a liver enzyme), the presence of myalgias (body aches), and an elevated hemoglobin (red blood cells), in this order, are the clinical features, on presentation, that are the most predictive.
Cycle threshold (Ct) might have been expected to predict severity of this coronavirus, as it
does in other infections including in another emerging disease Ebola [Crowe, Maenner,
Kuah et al. (2016)]. However, in COVID-19, Ct has so far not been shown to be predictive;
high viral loads (low Ct) have been seen in asymptomatic individuals and peak soon after
the onset of symptoms which may be well before some patients present to medical care
[National Institute of Infectious Diseases (2020); Huang, Wang, Li et al. (2020); Zou, Ruan,
Huang et al. (2020)].
Other well validated testing tools for pneumonia severity did not perform well. None of
the patients who developed ARDS would have met the criteria for requiring hospitalization
as set by the pneumonia patient outcomes research team (PORT) score.
Instead, a combination of factors commonly collected at first presentation was found to
predict disease progression to ARDS. As there were no deaths in this study, ARDS
represents the clinical syndrome of significance and has been associated with death in other
studies [Liu, Sun, Li et al. (2020); Xu, Shi, Wang et al. (2020)].
The features that machine learning showed best predicted ARDS were not the indicators a
548 CMC, vol.63, no.1, pp.537-551, 2020
clinician would standardly select, nor were these values grossly abnormal clinically.
Multiple iterations showed that the most predictive features included an increase in alanine
aminotransferase (ALT) and hemoglobin, and the presence of myalgias.

These features do not need to be causal to be predictive, but correlations do raise clinical
questions for physicians to consider. Liver function tests were not substantially elevated in
our study; none of the patients with liver disease developed ARDS, yet small elevations in
ALT featured prominently in the predictions
. Myalgias are not normally featured in
classification of illness severity, but could represent generalized inflammatory and
cytokine response not captured well by other indicators. Higher hemoglobin levels were
associated with poorer outcomes; this may be due to correlation with other factors
including male gender or even unreported tobacco use.
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Rafe
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Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

#755

Post by Rafe » Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:28 am

ELB wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:49 am
OMG. Now I know it's really bad:

Oregon allows customers to pump their own gasoline
How will I know how to pump my own gas?

There should be instructions posted on the dispensing equipment. In addition, the state has produced a flier that operators may post at dispensers. The flier provides safety instructions for the dispensing of gasoline, general operating instructions, and measures to reduce the spread of COVID-19.
:roll:

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Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

#756

Post by Flightmare » Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:35 am

CNN anchor Chris Cuomo said Tuesday that he has been diagnosed with Covid-19.
He is feeling well, and will continue to anchor his 9 p.m. program "Cuomo Prime Time" from his home.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/31/media/ch ... index.html
Deplorable lunatic since 2016

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Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

#757

Post by ELB » Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:41 am

Rafe wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:28 am
ELB wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:49 am
OMG. Now I know it's really bad:

Oregon allows customers to pump their own gasoline
How will I know how to pump my own gas?

There should be instructions posted on the dispensing equipment. In addition, the state has produced a flier that operators may post at dispensers. The flier provides safety instructions for the dispensing of gasoline, general operating instructions, and measures to reduce the spread of COVID-19.
:roll:
Oregon has banned customers from pumping gas since 1951, longer than I have been alive. So there probably are a lot of people who really have no idea what to do. :roll:

In 2018 Oregon did start letting "rural" people (counties with less than 40,000 population) pump their own gas, so there is a trained cadre out in the sticks, but with social distancing they can't come into town to teach the city slickers.

ETA: It appears New Jersey is the only state left that (in normal times at least) completely forbids customers from pumping their own gas. I don't know what they are doing about the current unpleasantness. Having gas station attendents on the look out would be a great way to detect New York City'ers trying to infiltrate New Jersey tho. :mrgreen:
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philip964
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Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19) from China: Its going to be bad.

#758

Post by philip964 » Tue Mar 31, 2020 1:49 pm

der Teufel wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:50 pm
philip964 wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:04 pm



So an accountant friend posed this question. Your a lending company with loans- you have payed off loans, loans that defaulted and required repossession and total loans made.

Lets say the name of your lending company is the USA. Here is the data for the USA.

USA
1.Total loans made 143,532
2. Payed off loans 4,865
3. Defaulted loans required repossession 2,572

4. Active loans = (1. - 2. - 3.) = 136,096 loans

5. Percent of loans that defaulted and required repossession = ( 3. /( 2.+ 3.) ) = 34.58 %
I stopped reading here. If I run the numbers I get:

2,572 / (4,865 + 143,532) = 2,572 / 148,397 = 0.01733 = 1.73%

1.73% is a lot different from 34.58%

What's up? Someone is way off. Maybe it's me, but if so please explain.
So if your making loans. You have the loans that you have made but have not been paid off. Those are the active loans. They could still default. You don't know. But you have the loans you made and were paid off. And you have the loans that defaulted. You have that history.

In your calculation you used the Total Loans made (3. / ( 2. + 1.) rather than my formula of ( 3. / 2.+ 3.)

The formula you used is sort of what everyone is hoping for all the active loans will not default. That is sort of the best case and is what people have been saying in the news that the default rate is. 1.73% and that is made up of very old loans with problems.

My formula uses the past history of the loans you have made in this case ( 2,572 / (4,865 + 2572) = .3457 = 34.57%

What also is being said alot is that lots of people take out loans and pay them off, but they did it without formally getting a loan, so there is no record of their loan or paying it off.

The main thing to learn from this is: Don't get a loan.

You shouldn't borrow money. So I am doing my best to not spend money I do not have.

I was told that long ago by a Texan who died awhile ago. He gets smarter in my eyes every day.

BTW the world loan default rate is 18.94% but that includes a lot of loan data from Germany, China and Iran which I am treating as suspect, since it is so much better than the rest of the world.

In other news:

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/03/ ... ive-a69815

Putin met the chief loan officer for Russia a few days ago and that loan officer himself has just gotten a new loan.


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Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

#759

Post by Grayling813 » Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:09 pm

Flightmare wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:35 am
CNN anchor Chris Cuomo said Tuesday that he has been diagnosed with Covid-19.
He is feeling well, and will continue to anchor his 9 p.m. program "Cuomo Prime Time" from his home.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/31/media/ch ... index.html
Probably fake news to gain viewers hoping to see him get worse every day until falling over dead.
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Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

#760

Post by Rafe » Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:44 pm

Grayling813 wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:09 pm
Flightmare wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:35 am
CNN anchor Chris Cuomo said Tuesday that he has been diagnosed with Covid-19.
He is feeling well, and will continue to anchor his 9 p.m. program "Cuomo Prime Time" from his home.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/31/media/ch ... index.html
Probably fake news to gain viewers hoping to see him get worse every day until falling over dead.
His brother Andrew talked ad nauseum for about 20 minutes today during one of his daily "fireside chats" about his brother Chris testing positive, about his ultra strict father, Mario, who told Chris to go to law school but Chris wanted to be a journalist, how their mother, Matilda, going over to Chris' house against Andrew's advice (after COVID-19 hit NY hard but before Chris tested positive) led to "Matilda's Law"...

I'd blame CNN for me knowing way more about the Cuomo family than I care to, except I don't watch CNN. It's also Fox News Channel that's been giving him so much on-air time to blather. :???:

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Rafe
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Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

#761

Post by Rafe » Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:47 pm

28 Austin spring breakers test positive for COVID-19 after Mexico trip

The students recently returned from a spring break trip to Mexico and are now self-isolating after testing positive for coronavirus, according to the Austin Public Health Department. Proof that we can grow 'em just as dumb as other states. https://abc13.com/health/28-students-te ... p/6065814/

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Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19) from China: Its going to be bad.

#762

Post by der Teufel » Tue Mar 31, 2020 5:14 pm

philip964 wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 1:49 pm
der Teufel wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:50 pm
philip964 wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:04 pm



So an accountant friend posed this question. Your a lending company with loans- you have payed off loans, loans that defaulted and required repossession and total loans made.

Lets say the name of your lending company is the USA. Here is the data for the USA.

USA
1.Total loans made 143,532
2. Payed off loans 4,865
3. Defaulted loans required repossession 2,572

4. Active loans = (1. - 2. - 3.) = 136,096 loans

5. Percent of loans that defaulted and required repossession = ( 3. /( 2.+ 3.) ) = 34.58 %
I stopped reading here. If I run the numbers I get:

2,572 / (4,865 + 143,532) = 2,572 / 148,397 = 0.01733 = 1.73%

1.73% is a lot different from 34.58%

What's up? Someone is way off. Maybe it's me, but if so please explain.
So if your making loans. You have the loans that you have made but have not been paid off. Those are the active loans. They could still default. You don't know. But you have the loans you made and were paid off. And you have the loans that defaulted. You have that history.

In your calculation you used the Total Loans made (3. / ( 2. + 1.) rather than my formula of ( 3. / 2.+ 3.)

The formula you used is sort of what everyone is hoping for all the active loans will not default. That is sort of the best case and is what people have been saying in the news that the default rate is. 1.73% and that is made up of very old loans with problems.

My formula uses the past history of the loans you have made in this case ( 2,572 / (4,865 + 2572) = .3457 = 34.57%
Okay, I see now that I indeed read the formula wrong. Thanks!
However, I'd make the point that defaulted loans happen early (or at least earlier than loans that become fully paid back), so it might be inappropriate to ignore all loans still outstanding when trying to figure how many loans will default.

But, while I'd say that's a consideration, it's not something to argue strongly about.
Thanks for clearing up my mistake.
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Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

#763

Post by The Annoyed Man » Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:40 pm

philip964 wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:26 am
OMG Representative Sheila Jackson Lee is speaking live on TV from the opening of a new coronavirus drive thru testing center in Sugarland, Texas.

She was made for this crisis.
How many words can she sign now? Does she still have a pet cat?
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Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

#764

Post by philip964 » Tue Mar 31, 2020 8:11 pm

The Annoyed Man wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:40 pm
philip964 wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:26 am
OMG Representative Sheila Jackson Lee is speaking live on TV from the opening of a new coronavirus drive thru testing center in Sugarland, Texas.

She was made for this crisis.
How many words can she sign now? Does she still have a pet cat?
On TV her weave was spectacular.

The Republican congressman whose district it actually was, was very nice and complemented her a number of times in his speech. One person in front of the camera, but behind, who stood with everyone else was wearing a mask. No one was keeping a social distance as usual.


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philip964
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Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

#765

Post by philip964 » Tue Mar 31, 2020 8:25 pm

https://news.yahoo.com/suspected-sars-v ... 26820.html

Just an FBI report from 2018 of a Chinese national carrying some MERS and SARS in his luggage back to China.

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