Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

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Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

#826

Post by PlatinumCouch » Sat Apr 04, 2020 5:28 pm

Rafe wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 5:12 pm
I'm not on the panic train, but I absolutely do not know what the best answer is to balance the economic risks and the medical risks. I posted a couple of days ago about the 1998 PBS episode of American Experience on the 1918 influenza pandemic. I'll say again, I think it's worth a look: https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperi ... influenza/. It isn't on YouTube, but it can be streamed for free from the PBS site. The good news: we aren't involved in a world war, and we have technology available to help many sectors of our predominantly service-related economy to work from home. At least somewhat. But we made a bunch of mistakes in 1918, and after watching that PBS video, I think you'll see we started out making very similar mistakes with COVID-19.

But here's a well-done video from Vox on April 1 that is on YouTube and offers a comparison of what we know currently about COVID-19 vs. the flu:



We have a lot more urban population density now than we did in 1918, and I think the worst-case scenario is potentially much worse than PlatinumCouch indicates. For one, Fauci and Birx have said that the real worst-case, even though both discount it as improbable, is more like 1.7 million U.S. deaths. We have no "herd immunity" yet to COVID-19, and we did, at least some, to H1N1 back in 1918. We thankfully understand the difference between a virus and a bacterium (unlike in 1918) and we aren't simply stacking cots shoulder-to-shoulder in triage wards and calling it hospitalization, but COVID-19 is far more contagious than influenza.

From two days ago, here's an interesting article from FiveThirtyEight, a product of ABC News: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/be ... far-apart/. They've been working on outbreak models weekly. One important opinion they arrived at was only about 12% of all COVID-19 infections in the U.S. have been reported so far. Which likely means the panic-inclined will become even more panicky because with actual numbers artificially low, as more and quicker/cheaper testing is done and more cases are identified the total number and percentages ain't going down anytime soon.

The "how many will die this year in the U.S. due to COVID-19" estimates in that article are all over the place. The orange bar on this graph represents the collective best-guesses, which fall in line with the White House current numbers of 100,000 to 240,000:

Image

TAM and our resident physicians can speak to this better than I can, but what I think I'm also concerned about are the deaths that are not caused by COVID-19, that won't go down in the books in the statistics. The nation has limited medical and hospital resources. If we're to believe what Andrew Cuomo says, New York is on the verge of setting up cots in the streets. (I'm not a huge Cuomo fan, BTW.) But the reality is that only so many ICU beds available, only so many ventilators, only so many physicians and PAs and nurses.

The mean of Dr. Fauci's current estimates would be 170,00 dead from coronavirus. That ain't gonna take until November to sort itself out. If we plop only a fraction of those into hospital ICUs over the next 5 to 7 weeks, the whole medical system will be overwhelmed and brought to a virtual standstill. What happens to the normal stream of people that need inpatient hospital admittance? People who have heart attacks, a stroke, a burst appendix, are in a car accident, need cancer surgery...have an unintentional discharge at the range and shoot themselves in the leg? (I had to bring it around to the focus of the Forum. ;-) )

If we take the top three causes of death--stopping at anything respiratory-related--and divide the annual number by 12, it means we see about 118,000 deaths each month in the U.S. from those causes alone, so over 200,000 in a 7 week period. Where do those people go when the inn is full? It's almost like a MASH triage where they will treat injuries to the lower extremities only. Been gut-shot? Sorry, we don't have the resources to treat you. That's what all this flattening-the-curve stuff is about.

My longest post in history, and I've got not a single solitary answer to offer. But I don't think it's to revert to the days of the Black Death and have trucks driving around to pick up the dead like a scheduled trash day. We've got to try to control this thing somehow. Otherwise we'll see the 170,000 deaths in a matter of weeks from the virus itself, plus undoubtedly 100,000-plus more from "normal" emergency medical requirements who kicked the bucket because we were too short on resources to give them the treatment they would have received if they'd had the foresight to get hit by that drunk driver in February instead of May.

Rafe,
Respectfully, All great points. I hope we can all debate this further when this thing is (hopefully) all over.
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Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

#827

Post by cirus » Sat Apr 04, 2020 6:45 pm

The world survived the great plague and it will survive this. Man has become so arrogant thinking he can control everything that when he realizes he can't he panics. We have never been in control of anything. Something like this makes you realize just how small we all are and that the world will go on whether we're here or not.

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Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

#828

Post by 03Lightningrocks » Sat Apr 04, 2020 6:52 pm

Harris County jumped by 200 cases. Deaths went to 105 for entire State. Collin County now has 256 cases. Total Tested only at 63,751. I feel sure many more would test positive if testing were more widespread.

You can check the county you live in here.

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/ops ... b9cafc8b83


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Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

#829

Post by philip964 » Sat Apr 04, 2020 7:18 pm

https://news.yahoo.com/italy-cheers-fir ... 36903.html

Italy cheers first drop in critical cases.

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Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

#830

Post by 03Lightningrocks » Sat Apr 04, 2020 7:43 pm

WooHoo!


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Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

#831

Post by K.Mooneyham » Sat Apr 04, 2020 7:52 pm

Rafe wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 5:12 pm
I'm not on the panic train, but I absolutely do not know what the best answer is to balance the economic risks and the medical risks. I posted a couple of days ago about the 1998 PBS episode of American Experience on the 1918 influenza pandemic. I'll say again, I think it's worth a look: https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperi ... influenza/. It isn't on YouTube, but it can be streamed for free from the PBS site. The good news: we aren't involved in a world war, and we have technology available to help many sectors of our predominantly service-related economy to work from home. At least somewhat. But we made a bunch of mistakes in 1918, and after watching that PBS video, I think you'll see we started out making very similar mistakes with COVID-19.

But here's a well-done video from Vox on April 1 that is on YouTube and offers a comparison of what we know currently about COVID-19 vs. the flu:



We have a lot more urban population density now than we did in 1918, and I think the worst-case scenario is potentially much worse than PlatinumCouch indicates. For one, Fauci and Birx have said that the real worst-case, even though both discount it as improbable, is more like 1.7 million U.S. deaths. We have no "herd immunity" yet to COVID-19, and we did, at least some, to H1N1 back in 1918. We thankfully understand the difference between a virus and a bacterium (unlike in 1918) and we aren't simply stacking cots shoulder-to-shoulder in triage wards and calling it hospitalization, but COVID-19 is far more contagious than influenza.

From two days ago, here's an interesting article from FiveThirtyEight, a product of ABC News: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/be ... far-apart/. They've been working on outbreak models weekly. One important opinion they arrived at was only about 12% of all COVID-19 infections in the U.S. have been reported so far. Which likely means the panic-inclined will become even more panicky because with actual numbers artificially low, as more and quicker/cheaper testing is done and more cases are identified the total number and percentages ain't going down anytime soon.

The "how many will die this year in the U.S. due to COVID-19" estimates in that article are all over the place. The orange bar on this graph represents the collective best-guesses, which fall in line with the White House current numbers of 100,000 to 240,000:

Image

TAM and our resident physicians can speak to this better than I can, but what I think I'm also concerned about are the deaths that are not caused by COVID-19, that won't go down in the books in the statistics. The nation has limited medical and hospital resources. If we're to believe what Andrew Cuomo says, New York is on the verge of setting up cots in the streets. (I'm not a huge Cuomo fan, BTW.) But the reality is that only so many ICU beds available, only so many ventilators, only so many physicians and PAs and nurses.

The mean of Dr. Fauci's current estimates would be 170,00 dead from coronavirus. That ain't gonna take until November to sort itself out. If we plop only a fraction of those into hospital ICUs over the next 5 to 7 weeks, the whole medical system will be overwhelmed and brought to a virtual standstill. What happens to the normal stream of people that need inpatient hospital admittance? People who have heart attacks, a stroke, a burst appendix, are in a car accident, need cancer surgery...have an unintentional discharge at the range and shoot themselves in the leg? (I had to bring it around to the focus of the Forum. ;-) )

If we take the top three causes of death--stopping at anything respiratory-related--and divide the annual number by 12, it means we see about 118,000 deaths each month in the U.S. from those causes alone, so over 200,000 in a 7 week period. Where do those people go when the inn is full? It's almost like a MASH triage where they will treat injuries to the lower extremities only. Been gut-shot? Sorry, we don't have the resources to treat you. That's what all this flattening-the-curve stuff is about.

My longest post in history, and I've got not a single solitary answer to offer. But I don't think it's to revert to the days of the Black Death and have trucks driving around to pick up the dead like a scheduled trash day. We've got to try to control this thing somehow. Otherwise we'll see the 170,000 deaths in a matter of weeks from the virus itself, plus undoubtedly 100,000-plus more from "normal" emergency medical requirements who kicked the bucket because we were too short on resources to give them the treatment they would have received if they'd had the foresight to get hit by that drunk driver in February instead of May.
And as soon as I noticed the video was from Vox, I was immediately disinclined to watch it. Everything from that leftwing site must be view with suspicion. I'll stick with information from official sources, thanks anyway.

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Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

#832

Post by The Annoyed Man » Sun Apr 05, 2020 8:04 am

The Real Coronavirus Chronology Shows Trump Was On Top Of It While Biden Was Mocking The Danger
The leftist national media incessantly reports that the spread of the coronavirus is, well, President Trump’s fault. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, always good for the most incendiary and least helpful comments in any difficult situation, said on Sunday, “[T]he president — his denial at the beginning was deadly.”

Then in Joe Biden’s latest effort to be relevant, his campaign has released an ad attacking President Trump for not being sufficiently responsive to the threats of the coronavirus from the “beginning.”
I’d quote the whole article if I could. Facts are often inconvenient things, and they are nearly ALWAYS inconvenient to anything spoken by democrats.
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Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

#833

Post by philip964 » Sun Apr 05, 2020 11:34 am

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/watchdo ... eqh7cSRzOY

Surgical mask factory in Dallas is not making surgical masks 24/7 and here is the reason why.

https://thefederalist.com/2020/04/03/wh ... us-deaths/

Why social distancing might actually result in more coronavirus deaths.


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Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

#834

Post by flechero » Sun Apr 05, 2020 11:49 am

Wow, I can't say I blame him... last time he got shaft and had to pay unemployment for all the ramp up workers and got stuck with inventory and supplies when cancelled.

I bet he could strike a deal with this administration to avoid the unemployment insurance for the overflow workers. And if nothing else, they should buy from him to resupply the national stockpile (and increase it) tenfold.


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Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

#835

Post by parabelum » Sun Apr 05, 2020 11:56 am

philip964 wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 11:34 am
https://www.dallasnews.com/news/watchdo ... eqh7cSRzOY

Surgical mask factory in Dallas is not making surgical masks 24/7 and here is the reason why.

https://thefederalist.com/2020/04/03/wh ... us-deaths/

Why social distancing might actually result in more coronavirus deaths.
Good point on herd immunity, however the idea with social distancing is not necessarily to beat the virus, rather it is to slow the outbreak so that our healthcare infrastructure doesn’t deprecate to a point where heart disease or stroke patients, or car accident victims may get delayed to no care.

To add, I spend 20-30hrs per week serving as a FF/EMT at a very busy volunteer dept. I can regrettably tell you that if we wait until we begin to see shortages in beds, physicians, nurses, EMTs/Medics etc due to fast influx of cases that surpasses the capacity, we will be in trouble. All, young and old.
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Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19) from China: Its going to be bad.

#836

Post by philip964 » Sun Apr 05, 2020 2:16 pm

MARCH
March 22, 2020- 318,662 world, 13,672 dead. 27,004 infected US,
347 dead. 53,578 Italy, 4,825 dead. 81,397 China. Texas has 557 with 5 deaths. Houston at 154.

March 23, 2020- 354,677 cases worldwide with 15430 dead. 35,345 infected US, 473 dead. 59,138 Italy with 5,476 dead. 81,496 China. Texas has 674 with 8 deaths. Houston 166 with 2 deaths.

March 24, 2020 am- 396,249 cases worldwide with 17,252 dead. 46,805 infected US, 593 dead. 63,927 Italy with 6,077 dead. 81,591 China (is anyone believing this). Texas has 807 with 9 deaths. Houston 199 with 2 Deaths.

March 25, 2020 pm- 468,523 cases worldwide with 21,192 dead. 66,132 infected US, 947 dead. 74,386 Italy with 7,503 dead. 81,667 China (is anyone believing this). New York state has 33,006 with 366 deaths. Louisiana has 1,795 with 65 deaths. Texas has 1,289 with 16 deaths. Houston 371 with 2 deaths.

March 26, 2020 am. 492,603 cases worldwide with 22,184 dead. 69,210 infected US, 1,046 dead. 74,386 Italy with 7,503 dead. 81,782 China (is anyone believing this). New York state has 33,006 with 366 deaths. Louisiana has 1,795 with 65 deaths. Texas has 1,353 with 17 deaths. Houston 372 with 2 deaths.

March 27, 2020 am. 553,244 cases worldwide with 25,935 dead. 86,012 infected US, 1,301 dead. 80,589 Italy with 8,215 dead. 81,897 China (is anyone believing this). New York state has 39,140 with 461 deaths. Louisiana has 2,304 with 83 deaths. Texas has 1,353 with 17 deaths. Houston 461 with 3 deaths.

March 28, 2020 12:48 pm. 640,589 cases worldwide with 29,848 dead. 112,458 infected US, 1,841 dead. 92,472 Italy with10,023 dead. 81,999 China (is anyone believing this). New York state has 52,318 with 728 deaths. Louisiana has 2,746 with 119 deaths. Texas has 2,026 with 26 deaths. Houston 543 with 4 deaths.

March 29, 2020 10:48 am. 684,652 cases worldwide with 32,113 dead. 124,763 infected US, 2,187 dead. 92,472 Italy with (no data) dead. 82,120 China (is anyone believing this). New York state has 53,520 with 834 deaths. Louisiana has 3,315 with 137 deaths. Texas has 2,535 with 34 deaths. Houston 810 with 6 deaths.

March 30, 2020 10:01 am. 741,030 cases worldwide with 35,114 dead. 143,532 infected US, 2,572 dead 4,865 recovered. 97,689 Italy with 10,779 dead. 82,198 China (is anyone believing this). New York state has 60,679 with 1,026 deaths. Louisiana has 3,540 with 151deaths. Texas has 2,306 with 34 deaths. Houston 929 with 8 deaths.

March 31, 2020 9:05 am. 803,313 cases worldwide with 39,014 dead. 164,719 infected US, 3,170 dead 5,945 recovered. 101,739 Italy with 11,591 dead. 94,417 Spain with 8,189 dead. China 82,276 (is anyone believing this). New York state has 67,384 with 1,342 deaths. New Jersey has 16,636 with 198 deaths. Louisiana has 4,025 with 185 deaths. Texas has 3,339 with 48 deaths. Houston 1,054 with 11 deaths.

APRIL
April 1, 2020 10:58 am. 885,687 cases worldwide with 44,216 dead. 185,477 recovered. USA 190,089 infected, 4,102 dead 7,141 recovered. 105,792 Italy with 12,428 dead. 102,136 Spain with 9,053 dead. China 82,361 (is anyone believing this). New York state has 76,049 with 1,714 deaths. New Jersey has 18,997 with 267 deaths. Louisiana has 5,237 with 239 deaths. Texas has 3,925 with 58 deaths. Houston 1,267 with 13 deaths.

April 2, 2020 12:41 am. 981,221 cases worldwide with 50,230 dead. 204,605 recovered. USA 226,374 infected, 5,316 dead 8,826 recovered. 115,242 Italy with 13,915 dead. 110,238 Spain with 10,003 dead. China 82,432 (is anyone believing this). New York state has 92,381 with 2,373 deaths. New Jersey has 22,255 with 355 deaths. Louisiana has 6,424 with 273 deaths. Texas has 4,612 with 68 deaths. Houston 1,540 with 16 deaths.

April 3, 2020 11:50 am. 1,056777 cases worldwide with 55,781 dead. 221,595 recovered. USA 257,773 infected, 6,586 dead 9,311 recovered. 115,242 Italy with 13,915 dead. 117,710 Spain with 10,935 dead. China 82,509 (is anyone believing this). New York state has102,863 with 2,935 deaths. New Jersey has 25,590 with 537 deaths. Louisiana has 9,159 with 310 deaths. Texas has 5,254 with 86 deaths. Houston 1,729 with 23 deaths.

April 4, 2020 11:32 am. 1,141,180 cases worldwide with 60,960 dead. 235,775 recovered. USA 278,942 infected, 7,174 dead 9,920 recovered. 119,827 Italy with 14,681 dead. 124,736 Spain with 11,744 dead. China 82,543 with 3,330 dead (is anyone believing this). New York state has 103,172 with 2,935 deaths. New Jersey has 29,895 with 646 deaths. Louisiana has 10,297 with 370 deaths. Texas has 6,059 with 104 deaths. Houston 2,029 with 26 deaths.

April 5, 2020 12:46 pm. 1,249,107 cases worldwide with 67,999 dead. 256,059 recovered. USA 324,052 infected, 9,132 dead 16,789 recovered. 128,948 Italy with 15,362 dead. 130,759 Spain with 12,418 dead. China 82,602 with 3,333 dead (is anyone believing this). New York state has 122,056 with 4,159 deaths. New Jersey has 34,124 with 864 deaths. Louisiana has 12,496 with 409 deaths. Texas has 6,872 with 123 deaths. Houston 2,281 with 35 deaths. For detailed information on Texas see https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/ops ... b9cafc8b83 For worldwide information on Covid-19 https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

Graph keeps climbing.

So time passes and I forget the recent timeline:

January 20, 2020 First case in US in Everett, Washington
January 23, 2020, I started this thread, another case in LA and one at A&M here in Texas, everyone had been to Wuhan.
January 17 -8, 2020 Chinese New Year. Cancelled in China
January 31, 2020 Italy bans all flights from China.
Feb. 1-25 Mardi Gras in New Orleans and sort of Galveston.
Feb. 4, 2020 U. S. Restricted flights from China.
Feb. 9, 2020 Chinese New Year parade in New York https://www.amny.com/editorial/fear-of- ... chinatown/ De Blasio said a lot the city faced a lot of hazards in the last 24 hours, including the shooting of two police officers, but the threat of coronavirus has yet to show itself in a “vigilant city.”
Feb. 26, 2020 Trump appoints Pence Coronavirus Tzar. https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... oronavirus
March 3 - 11, 2020 the Rodeo Houston, it closes 11 days early.
March 6- 13, 2020 Last day of school for most students in Houston area.
March 12, 2020 Trump bans travel from Europe.
March 16, 2020 Trump issues the guideline to groups no more than 10 people work at home or school, avoid restaurants and bars. "This is a bad one a very bad one". Minor symptoms stay at home.
March 15, 2020 The family ate at a sit down restaurant late Sunday night, we went late so it wouldn't be crowded. It wasn't. Most of the staff was off. They sat anyone that was there in one compact area as the other sections were "closed". I was unhappy.
March 17, 2020 Houston Bars and Restaurants Dining Rooms closed to go orders only.
March 20, 2020 Houston;s mayor denied rumors the city would shut down.
March 23, 2020 I started this list of cases, Houston had a 154 cases.
March 23, 2020 Houston's Mayor was "thinking through" what the next steps should be, but social distancing should be practiced and people should stay at home as much as possible.
March 24, 2020 stay at home ordered.

So the 7th will be two weeks. The cases haven't peaked, still climbing higher each day not even a hint of leveling off. People are staying at home. The freeways are empty everyday. Schools and Universities are closed. People are laid off or working from home.

Pray it gets better.
Last edited by philip964 on Sun Apr 05, 2020 2:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

#837

Post by 03Lightningrocks » Sun Apr 05, 2020 2:33 pm

Image

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Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

#838

Post by tomneal » Sun Apr 05, 2020 3:44 pm

World Wide Deaths

I am proud of myself because of the many SNARKY Comments I wrote then deleted, before sending.

Back to lurking...
See you at the range
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Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

#839

Post by philip964 » Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:01 pm

https://apnews.com/193a0cfe074685144ade169084a68255

Boris Johnson PM of UK hospitalized for “tests”.

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Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

#840

Post by mojo84 » Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:25 pm

03Lightningrocks wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 2:33 pm
Image
Where did you get this chart? I've been looking for something similar.
Note: Me sharing a link and information published by others does not constitute my endorsement, agreement, disagreement, my opinion or publishing by me. If you do not like what is contained at a link I share, take it up with the author or publisher of the content.

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