Let the fun begin! Tropical Depression 1

[Frost]

Last year, the best performing models at the 3 - 4 day forecast range were the GFS and the Canadian, and these are the models that are currently calling for the more northerly track towards the upper Texas coast and Louisiana.

[canvasbck]

Unfortunately, GFS is one of the more reliable dynamic models.

Edit, looks like my pony is slow

[gregthehand]

It looks like it's going to go in at Harlingen/Brownsville and then head west. Here in Houston we'll probably just get a lot of rain.

[Frost]

Keep on your toes, significat deviations from the forecasts have happened in the past.

This consensus forecast has narrowed in on the region near the Texas/Mexico border as being the most likely landfall location, with the usual cone of uncertainty surrounding it. The northernmost landfall location is Port O'Connor, as predicted by the Canadian model. The southernmost landfall location is near Tampico, Mexico, as predicted by the ECMWF model. Alex's landfall time varies from Wednesday evening to Thursday morning. Which model should you trust? Last year, the best performing models at the 3 day forecast period were the GFS, Canadian, ECMWF, and GFDL. Three out of four of those models are predicting a landfall between Brownsville and Corpus Christi, with only the ECMWF model predicting a landfall well south of the Texas border. With steering currents relatively weak, the uncertainty in landfall location is high. The average error in an NHC 72-hour track forecast last year was 230 miles, which is about the distance from Brownsville to Port O'Connor. Consider also that the NHC cone of uncertainty is the region where 2/3 of the time (using the last 5 years of statistics) the center of a storm will go. That means that 1/3 of the time a storm will not be in the cone of uncertainty.

[pbwalker]

This puppy is sitting in record setting warm water, so it could EASILY pop up to a Cat 2 by the time it hits land. A lot of models are showing a more northern track than the NHC. But the "Cone of Uncertainty" is getting a little tighter. The biggest factor in where this will go is the frontal boundary NW of us. If that line picks up speed, this storm is going to be pushed much further north. If it sits tight, Mexico impact. If I were in B'ville up to Corpus, I'd keep up on this...

[ES4Me]

Hurricanes are a real pain on LE/Fire/EMS

And people who are in charge of operations and security at ports. Love my job....don't love hurricane season!

[pbwalker]

This puppy is sitting in record setting warm water, so it could EASILY pop up to a Cat 2 by the time it hits land. A lot of models are showing a more northern track than the NHC. But the "Cone of Uncertainty" is getting a little tighter. The biggest factor in where this will go is the frontal boundary NW of us. If that line picks up speed, this storm is going to be pushed much further north. If it sits tight, Mexico impact. If I were in B'ville up to Corpus, I'd keep up on this...

It's showing a Cat2 impact now... (as of the time of this post...these images are dynamic). I think the NHC is off (to the south) a bit on their prediction. My guess now, based on the info I have, is a landfall around Port Mansfield. But we'll see!

[tacticool]

Might want to think about gettin some gasoline too.

No problem. I keep the gas tank at least half full.

[glbedd53]

I meant for a generator, if you have one as well as the vehicles, unless you can stay gone til the lights come back on. We stayed in Arkansas for a week during Ike and still had 4 days before we got power after we came home.

[MasterofFajitas]

Hi all, There was lots of wind, heavy rain, and little damage to anything. I was able to get out and go everywhere I wanted; however, there was no beach access on Mustang Island as high tide was rather high .

The wind did blow water underneath some shingles and it looks like that part of my roof will need repair. (It could have been much worse!)

Pictures from Wednesday and Thursday...

Corpus Christi Bay seawall at Cole Park



Corpus Christi Bay breaching the seawall headed into downtown