Changing demographics and voting....

[The Annoyed Man]

I hope this is the right forum for this...

Some of us have brushed on this topic before, but I ran across this article which should cause some degree of alarm....

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/ ... 6920150102
Americans on the move want warmth, affordability: reports
BY MARK GUARINO
CHICAGO Fri Jan 2, 2015 2:03pm EST

(Reuters) - Americans moving out of state in 2014 were most likely to head to places that were warmer and more affordable, such as the South and Southwest, according to studies by two major moving companies.

The 47th annual report by Allied Van Lines showed that Illinois topped the list of states people are moving away from with 1,372 net moves, followed by Pennsylvania, New York, Michigan and New Jersey. The states have remained in the top five since 2010, the company said.

———{SNIP}———

United [Van Lines] said Oregon was the most preferred destination for its clients, followed by South Carolina, North Carolina, Vermont and Florida. The company said 38 percent of its clients moving to Oregon were going for a new job while 29 percent cited retirement.

Allied clients were most likely to move to Texas, Florida, Arizona, South Carolina and Colorado, the company said.

How are those who wash up in Texas likely to vote? Granted, Allied "only" reports 1,372 "net" moves out of colder states, but that net figure includes people moving into the colder states. So the actual number moving out of those states into warmer climes is larger than that 1,372........and that is for one year.......and it doesn't include people who got themselves here using a UHaul trailer or truck and some elbow grease, like I did.

This year old article from the Dallas Morning News has even more ominous numbers: http://www.dallasnews.com/news/local-ne ... imates.ece

Texas added more than 387,000 residents between July 1, 2012, and July 1, 2013, and more than 1.3 million since April 1, 2010, significantly more than any other state, according to estimates released Monday by the U.S. Census Bureau.

But the state’s rate of growth has slowed slightly in this decade, to an annual population increase of about 1.6 percent compared with about 2 percent a year between 2000 and 2010, said Lloyd Potter, the Texas state demographer.

This article from US News & World Report last May says (http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/201 ... ureau-says):

The area around the Texas capital saw the fastest population growth in the U.S. in 2013, according to Census Bureau estimates released Thursday. San Marcos, Cedar Park and Georgetown – all located within 30 miles of Austin – ranked among the top 10 of the most rapidly growing U.S. cities with populations of 50,000 or more.

Seven of the 15 most rapidly growing cities were in Texas, the figures show

In this thread, Charles has raised the specter of the effect of OCTC and OCT's terribly misguided tactics on pro-gun legislation: viewtopic.php?f=129&t=75620" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;. In THIS POST in that thread, I proposed the possibility of more liberal politicians striking a deal to support licensed OC in exchange for an amendment to the bill that makes the unlicensed open carry of black-powder pistols illegal. With an influx of left-of-center transplanted voters from cold-climate liberal states, who can realistically argue that this is not a possibility?

I had a thought earlier this morning (yes, it hurt a little bit, but I cowboyed up and forged ahead.....). We often ask the question why moderate Muslims don't police radical Muslims themselves. We complain of an apparent lack of condemnation of radical Islam from the moderates. Well, there are moderates who condemn the actions of militants. We just don't get to hear from them because the left-leaning media doesn't want us to hear from them. The idea of Muslims who can coexist with Israel isn't popular with the left.....so we don't hear it reported.

Similarly, all we see in the media these days is coverage of the nutters in the gun community. By nutters, I mean the "cop-watch OCTC" types. We never see reporting of the outrage expressed from within the gun community over the nutter tactics. Why? Because it is not convenient to an antigun media's narrative that the majority of politically conscious gun owners are responsible citizens who abhor this behavior.

And what would be really scary is the idea that the media would begin covering this pro-gun outrage in order to back us into a corner on things like universal background checks. I'm not in favor of them, but it is hard to argue against them when nimrods like OCTC are running around harassing cops with openly carried firearms.

We live in a state with changing demographics, whether we like it or not. We cannot afford to be anything except on our best behavior if we want to begin to convert the more liberal of these transplants to a better understanding of the 2nd Amendment, and to supporting it instead of working against it.

Now is not the time for tomfoolery.

[TexasCajun]

The large numbers of transplants into Texas is why we've been targeted by the various turn Texas groups. They see it as an opportunity to facilitate political change that otherwise would be rejected. I was surprised at the Texas election results in 2012. And then equally surprised (but in the other direction) last year. Before last November, I would have predicted we'd be solidly purple by 2016. We could still swing more to the left next year, but that would be less likely if the tea party / libertarian end of the GOP can enough hay in the early primaries.

[cb1000rider]

I'm not sure that the "liberal" demographics that you need to worry about are imports from the north. Politicians - at least if they're reasonably young would be smart to stay ahead of that curve. Isolating to the older, very conservative, and mostly Anglo demographic is not a long term winning strategy. In fact, continuing on that course will certainly guarantee change.

What's saving the state from becoming very red right now is solid voter apathy. Particularly along lines of age and economic demographics.

Conservatives need to get on top of issues like same-sex marriage. When they don't, then the courts shove rulings down the legislators throats - which would be entirely unnecessary if there were rules that didn't create a disadvantaged class... Literally the "marriage" idea could have been salvaged and conservatives could have kept what was important. The war on drugs is another good example - states are already making adjustments that make sense - not to druggie hippies - but to conservative taxpayers who should be sick of paying for decades of ineffective policy and enforcement. I'd like to see Texas not solidly last on stuff like this, although I bet a lot of you disagree.

I'm a little disappointed. The Democrats just got the worst political beating (national scope) since the 1950s - it's time for the Republican party to get something done.. I understand that we have a Democratic president, but something needs to get done in that grid-lock which is Washington, otherwise the political beating will swing the other way...

I really like Austin.. At least most of it. Yea, the firearm politics are not good if that's all your looking at, but the "liberalism" has other advantages to people that live and work in Austin. Traffic kinda stinks though.

[anygunanywhere]

I'm a little disappointed. The Democrats just got the worst political beating (national scope) since the 1950s - it's time for the Republican party to get something done.. I understand that we have a Democratic president, but something needs to get done in that grid-lock which is Washington, otherwise the political beating will swing the other way...

The GOP will save us.

Not.

Obamacare and the illegal immigrant amnesty was fully funded by a GOP house. Remember all the news talking heads blabbering about the "mandate" the voters sent to DC?? They ignored it and went a head and gave the progressives everything they wanted. The progressives even bragged about it in the media and the media was dancing around the maypole with the results.

Even if the GOP takes the white house and keeps congress in 2016 nothing will change. The GOP is pushing the same RINO candidates as before.

Nothing has changed, nothing will change. Votes for the RINO "conservatives" is another vote for big government and more socialism.

[rotor]

I'm a little disappointed. The Democrats just got the worst political beating (national scope) since the 1950s - it's time for the Republican party to get something done.. I understand that we have a Democratic president, but something needs to get done in that grid-lock which is Washington, otherwise the political beating will swing the other way...

The GOP will save us.

Not.

Obamacare and the illegal immigrant amnesty was fully funded by a GOP house. Remember all the news talking heads blabbering about the "mandate" the voters sent to DC?? They ignored it and went a head and gave the progressives everything they wanted. The progressives even bragged about it in the media and the media was dancing around the maypole with the results.

Even if the GOP takes the white house and keeps congress in 2016 nothing will change. The GOP is pushing the same RINO candidates as before.

Nothing has changed, nothing will change. Votes for the RINO "conservatives" is another vote for big government and more socialism.

I don't know if that is paricularly fair to say for 2014 when the new congress hadn't been sworn in yet. In reality there was not much that they could really do. Now in 2015 when they control the house and the senate we will see what they will do. You may very well be right though and perhaps nothing will change. Or perhaps they will plod along with standard tactics that are sure to go down in defeat such as anti-abortion measures which turn off the youth and female voters and are losers in court and will be Obama veto material, restricting contraception, and all of the usual measures that we see when the republicans have a majority ( just like in Texas ). Let's at least give them a chance to see what they will do in 2015 before we concede that nothing will change (although I am pessimistic).

[Abraham]

cb1000rider,

You posted: "Conservatives need to get on top of issues like same-sex marriage."

I ask, is this really the hill we want to fight on?

Without, I hope, sounding too disheartened, SSM is for all practical purposes, a done deal. The left and the left media have made sure of it.

I must admit, when SSM was a rather new issue it took me quite some time not to go purple with outrage whenever I encountered it. It just seemed so bizarre probably because I'm a kid of the fifties when what we considered normal could not encompass such an idea as SSM.

Though I find gays marrying a travesty, I've rather come to the conclusion such things don't really affect me. Now, I simply eye roll at such so-called marriages and go on about my business. For me, there are more important issues to be dealt with.

SSM is here to stay. We're not going to stop it.

I find gun rights a far more important and winnable problem along with other conservative ideas.

[anygunanywhere]

cb1000rider,

You posted: "Conservatives need to get on top of issues like same-sex marriage."

I ask, is this really the hill we want to fight on?

Without, I hope, sounding too disheartened, SSM is for all practical purposes, a done deal. The left and the left media have made sure of it.

I must admit, when SSM was a rather new issue it took me quite some time not to go purple with outrage whenever I encountered it. It just seemed so bizarre probably because I'm a kid of the fifties when what we considered normal could not encompass such an idea as SSM.

Though I find gays marrying a travesty, I've rather come to the conclusion such things don't really affect me. Now, I simply eye roll at such so-called marriages and go on about my business. For me, there are more important issues to be dealt with.

SSM is here to stay. We're not going to stop it.

I find gun rights a far more important and winnable problem along with other conservative ideas.

I want to marry my guns.

[The Annoyed Man]

I want to marry my guns.

I just want to bitterly cling to mine.

[anygunanywhere]

I want to marry my guns.

I just want to bitterly cling to mine.

I have seen marriages like that.

[cb1000rider]

cb1000rider,
I ask, is this really the hill we want to fight on?
Without, I hope, sounding too disheartened, SSM is for all practical purposes, a done deal. The left and the left media have made sure of it.

I think that came across wrong. I'm not saying that there is a fight left there at all. That battle - or war - is over. Sure, it's still being worked out in a few courts, but it's going to eventually go to the supreme court. And even if the supreme court becomes more conservative, they generally don't allow class based discrimination. I define "class based" as any group of people in the broad sense.

I was using that example because even some of the very conservative faction could identify that was some level of inherent financial unfairness and choosing to be (or being born into, depending on your view) that particular group. 50 years ago, the same "very conservative" group was allowing some forms of race based discrimination to continue. That's not to say it's the same thing, same people, or to point fingers. Again, I use it as an example of something we should have gotten out in front of. We could have created a "civil union" concept that doesn't offend religion based marriage concepts, but grants the same rights and privileges as other "classes". And then some of us could form civil unions with our guns. Without that unfairness, it'd be hard to find any support for changing the definition of marriage.

By not getting out in front of it, we establish inequality regardless of meaning to or not. And this country will tolerate inequality for a while, but not forever... Because we didn't resolve it SCOTUS is going to settle it for us and inject something that some people find offensive to a very old and traditional concept.

Dig your heels in. Refuse to compromise on important things, but do so carefully...

[Dadtodabone]

I'm a little disappointed. The Democrats just got the worst political beating (national scope) since the 1950s - it's time for the Republican party to get something done.. I understand that we have a Democratic president, but something needs to get done in that grid-lock which is Washington, otherwise the political beating will swing the other way...

The GOP will save us.

Not.

Obamacare and the illegal immigrant amnesty was fully funded by a GOP house. Remember all the news talking heads blabbering about the "mandate" the voters sent to DC?? They ignored it and went a head and gave the progressives everything they wanted. The progressives even bragged about it in the media and the media was dancing around the maypole with the results.

Even if the GOP takes the white house and keeps congress in 2016 nothing will change. The GOP is pushing the same RINO candidates as before.

Nothing has changed, nothing will change. Votes for the RINO "conservatives" is another vote for big government and more socialism.

Forgot your copyright?

[anygunanywhere]

I'm a little disappointed. The Democrats just got the worst political beating (national scope) since the 1950s - it's time for the Republican party to get something done.. I understand that we have a Democratic president, but something needs to get done in that grid-lock which is Washington, otherwise the political beating will swing the other way...

The GOP will save us.

Not.

Obamacare and the illegal immigrant amnesty was fully funded by a GOP house. Remember all the news talking heads blabbering about the "mandate" the voters sent to DC?? They ignored it and went a head and gave the progressives everything they wanted. The progressives even bragged about it in the media and the media was dancing around the maypole with the results.

Even if the GOP takes the white house and keeps congress in 2016 nothing will change. The GOP is pushing the same RINO candidates as before.

Nothing has changed, nothing will change. Votes for the RINO "conservatives" is another vote for big government and more socialism.

Forgot your copyright?

[The Annoyed Man]

cb1000rider,
I ask, is this really the hill we want to fight on?
Without, I hope, sounding too disheartened, SSM is for all practical purposes, a done deal. The left and the left media have made sure of it.

I think that came across wrong. I'm not saying that there is a fight left there at all. That battle - or war - is over. Sure, it's still being worked out in a few courts, but it's going to eventually go to the supreme court. And even if the supreme court becomes more conservative, they generally don't allow class based discrimination. I define "class based" as any group of people in the broad sense.

I was using that example because even some of the very conservative faction could identify that was some level of inherent financial unfairness and choosing to be (or being born into, depending on your view) that particular group. 50 years ago, the same "very conservative" group was allowing some forms of race based discrimination to continue. That's not to say it's the same thing, same people, or to point fingers. Again, I use it as an example of something we should have gotten out in front of. We could have created a "civil union" concept that doesn't offend religion based marriage concepts, but grants the same rights and privileges as other "classes". And then some of us could form civil unions with our guns. Without that unfairness, it'd be hard to find any support for changing the definition of marriage.

By not getting out in front of it, we establish inequality regardless of meaning to or not. And this country will tolerate inequality for a while, but not forever... Because we didn't resolve it SCOTUS is going to settle it for us and inject something that some people find offensive to a very old and traditional concept.

Dig your heels in. Refuse to compromise on important things, but do so carefully...

By the way, this kind of stuff is exactly why the republican party needs to drift toward the libertarian, or it is going to become a perennial loser to the democrat party. It's not whether or not I think these things are moral - I don't - but I don't think that a large overarching and grasping federal government has any business mandating morality at the local level. But there are SOME things that are non-negotiables, and the 2nd Amendment is one of them.

[VMI77]

Even if the GOP takes the white house and keeps congress in 2016 nothing will change. The GOP is pushing the same RINO candidates as before.

Nothing has changed, nothing will change. Votes for the RINO "conservatives" is another vote for big government and more socialism.

I have to disagree...of course things are going to change.....they're going to continue to get worse until the ruling oligarchs have eliminated the middle class and control every aspect of our lives --or until enough people have had enough and do something besides wasting their time in the voting booth.